Hash Tag Hook-Up

The one-night-stand is the micro-blog of the relationship world, the Twitter, if you will, of hookups. All you need to do needs to be done in a few hours, no exceptions. Depending upon your state of mind, the afterwards will be regretful, grateful, boastful or just plain dazed, but once 'published', it's out there forever.

What separates the ONS from other relationships is that no-one sets out to...what's the word?..create a one-night-stand. They're purely a circumstantial animal, the result of shared horniness and mutual attraction. By definition they're held together with sexual glue, but that's a glue with an expiration date of the next morning. There's an idea; time-limited Sex Glue. That works on a number of levels.

One night stands have a slightly bad name, likely because one is led to believe that one party (the female?) will be aggrieved by the love 'em and leave 'em attitude. Wrong. Frankly, I think the ONS serves women way better than men, in that they're likely to be more picky about his skills than him about hers. She gets the convenient 'out' from a dud bash without any more explanation than "Oh, he was just a one night stand." No-one ever questions it, but everyone secretly knows that he didn't measure up.

So if you're a guy, be circumspect. Green lights from a hot dame are awesome, but understand that she has the power to label you #didntdoitforme



Bottoms Up, For One Night Only.

Garlic Sautéed Yellow Squash and Carrots

In summers past, I grew yellow squash with great success. The plants spread to every inch of the garden, threatening to overwhelm tomato plants, the herb garden and a small patch of arugula.

After the vines firmly established themselves, the long, fat squash seemed to appear overnight. What to do with all those squash?

A neighbor saved the day. She loved squash blossoms. She would nip the problem in the bud, so to speak, by picking blossoms before the squash could appear.

Ultimately our best solution was avoidance. We stopped planting squash. Problem solved.

But I missed squash's pleasant crunch and clean flavor. Last week we were gifted with a basket of zucchini and yellow squash from our next-door neighbor's front yard garden. Picked while they were young, before they became watery, the zucchini and squash were unblemished, firm and the picture of health.

There were a great number of ways to prepare such perfect specimens. They could be steamed, grilled or even eaten raw in thin slices or grated. Because I had a beautiful bone in ribeye steak, I decided to sauté them with garlic to use as a side dish.

Sautéing would caramelize and bring out their hidden sweetness. Combined with carrot rounds, the color and texture contrast would add to the pleasures of the dish.

Steak never had such a pleasant companion.

Garlic Sautéed Squash and Carrot Rounds

Time: 30 minutes.

Yield: 4 servings

Ingredients


4 medium sized yellow squash, washed, ends trimmed, cut into 1/4" thick rounds
4 medium sized carrots, washed, peeled, ends trimmed, cut into 1/4" thick rounds
1 small yellow onion, skins and root end removed, washed, roughly chopped
4 garlic cloves, skins and root ends removed, finely chopped
1 tablespoon olive oil
1 tablespoon sweet butter
Sea salt and black pepper

Directions


Heat a large frying or chef's plan with olive oil, seasoned with sea salt and pepper.  Add onions and garlic. Sauté until lightly browned. Add yellow squash and carrots. Sauté until lightly browned. Finish with sweet butter.

Taste and adjust seasoning with sea salt and pepper. Serve hot.

Variations


Dust with 1/4 teaspoon cayenne for heat.

With the carrots and squash, add 1/2 cut washed, trimmed green beans, cut into 1/2" long pieces.

With the onions and garlic, add 1 tablespoon washed, trimmed shiitake mushrooms, roughly chopped.

Once all the vegetables are cooked, add 2 cups cooked pasta, toss, dust with freshly grated Parmesan cheese and serve as a side or main dish.

Zucchini!

It's about that time of year when gardens are overflowing with zucchini.  There are so many ways to enjoy this green vegetable, including the way I'm sharing with you today.  I actually made these last summer and lucky for you I found it in my drafts folder!

Corn & Zucchini Cakes
adapted from Bran Appetit & Chosing Raw

1/4c ground flaxseed
6T water
1c fresh corn kernals (from 2 ears)
1/2 sm zucchini, diced (~1/2c)
scant 3/4t salt
1/4t fresh ground pepper
1/2t dried cumin
1/8t dried coriander
1/4c nutritional yeast
6T cornmeal
4-6T milk (I used almond)

In a small bowl, mix together flaxseed and water, set aside for ~5min while you prep the rest of the ingredients.

In a medium bowl, add all ingredients except milk) and mix well.  Add enough milk to bring the mixture to a batter consistency.

Heat a skillet over medium heat.  Using a 1/4-cup measure, scoop dough onto skillet and cook 3-5min, until it starts to brown.  Flip and cook another 2-4min, and then set aside.

I served these over some mixed greens and topped them with chopped avocado and tomatoes!

Have more zucchini to use up?  Here are some more of my favorites:

Savory Zucchini Bread
Zucchini Kale Lasagna
Cardamom Coffee Zucchini Bread
Sauteed Squash on Avocado Pesto Pasta

Zucchini Kale Lasagna (left), Avocado Pesto Pasta w/Sauteed Squash (right)

What's your favorite way to enjoy zucchini?

Smoked Salmon Pizza

A week to go before my move, and this recipe was inspired by the pumpkernickel pizza dough that was hiding in my freezer!  This time I went with a more traditional pairing incorporating some delicious smoked Alaskan salmon.  Two things less to move and a delicious dinner :)

Smoked Salmon Pumpernickel Pizza
Recipe by Shannon

A few notes:  I was out of capers, but if you've got some hanging out in the fridge, I'd chop up 1T or so and add it to the mix!
     The pizza dough freezes beautifully (wrapped tightly in saran and stored in a ziploc bag).  A day or two before making the pizza, I defrosted the dough in the fridge and then brought it to RT for an hour before baking.
     While I grilled this pizza, you could also bake this in a hot (450deg) oven!  I love my pizza stone for a nice crispy crust- preheat with the oven, then remove and add the dough and toppings.  Bake until cheese is bubbly, ~8-12min.

pumpernickel pizza dough (I used ~1/3 recipe)
4oz Nufatchel, RT
1/2c 2% greek yogurt
1-2t fresh chopped dill (I used fresh frozen)
2T diced red onion
4T diced cucumber
salt and freshly ground pepper
6.5oz smoked salmon (I used canned Alaskan Smoked Sockeye, but feel free to use what you find in the grocer's deli case)

Preheat grill on high heat.

To prepare the cream cheese spread, combine nufatchel, yogurt, dill, red onion and cucumber to a small bowl.  Season with a dash of salt and some pepper, then mix well and taste.  Adjust seasonings and set aside.

To prepare your dough, flour the surface.  Start stretching the dough with your hands and then continue with a rolling pin until it's ~1/4" thick (I like it on the thin, crispy side).  Spray one side of the dough with cooking spray (or use a paper towel with some oil) and add, oiled side down, to the grill.  Grill for ~4min, until cooked (you'll see nice grill marks, and perhaps some bubbles in the dough).  Flip dough over and grill for another 3-5min, until crust is crispy.  Remove the dough from the grill with tongs and transfer to a large plate or cutting board.  Spread cream cheese mixture evenly on the dough, then top with flaked smoked salmon and serve.

I've still got a few cans left, so I'd love to know your favorite way to enjoy smoked salmon??

Incompetent Cervix

The initial hint that you're dealing with a very different animal comes in that first sex-ed class. When they show that slide of the interior female, the shock lasts a long time, I can tell you.You know the one, that diagram - anterior view I think it's called - showing the lower lady thorax's contents in all its glory; uterus, tubes, ovaries and all. No disrespect intended, but when a ten year-old boy is faced with this for the first time, it looks positively alien. Like something a cheap sci-fi movie props man cobbled together, the vague likeness of a venus fly-trap.

Not only are there all those odd-looking parts, but they do odd things, too. Eggs shoot out, stuff builds up on uterine walls, hormones rain all over the shop and there's blood everywhere. (Although sex educators are at pains to point out the wonder, mystery and beauty of all this argle-bargle, stressing that periodic blood is different from circulatory blood.)

See, I paid attention.

The first reaction is "OMG, all that's inside you?" drawing inevitable comparisons to one's own alien parts. In our case, they're only mildly other-wordly, being, as they are, more out there. Besides, the penis is a simple hydraulic/plumbing fixture and more or less self-contained. Balls? Best to consider them biological punctuation.

Puberty and sexual maturity change everything, naturally. What at first seemed gooey and intimidating becomes, well, still gooey and intimidating, but in a way that makes a bloke devote his life to lady-parts exploration. Then there's the secret of actual child-bearing, where the complexity multiplies, together with the possible problems.

For instance, an incompetent cervix is a mere inconvenience to a woman; an incompetent penis would devastate a man. Therein the difference between the sexes.



Bottoms Up, Triffids.

Greenland is melting at incredible rate

The combination-image below shows how much the ice on Greenland melted between July 8 (left) and July 12 (right).

On July 8, about 40% of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and some 97% of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. 

In the image, the areas classified as “probable melt” (light pink) correspond to those sites where at least one satellite detected surface melting. The areas classified as “melt” (dark pink) correspond to sites where two or three satellites detected surface melting. The satellites are measuring different physical properties at different scales and are passing over Greenland at different times. Credit: Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory.

For several days this month, Greenland's surface ice cover melted over a larger area than at any time in more than 30 years of satellite observations. Nearly the entire ice cover of Greenland, from its thin, low-lying coastal edges to its two-mile-thick center, experienced some degree of melting at its surface, according to measurements from three independent satellites analyzed by NASA and university scientists.

On average in the summer, about half of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet naturally melts. At high elevations, most of that melt water quickly refreezes in place. Near the coast, some of the melt water is retained by the ice sheet and the rest is lost to the ocean. But this year the extent of ice melting at or near the surface jumped dramatically. According to satellite data, an estimated 97% of the ice sheet surface thawed at some point in mid-July.

This extreme melt event coincided with an unusually strong ridge of warm air, or a heat dome, over Greenland. The ridge was one of a series that has dominated Greenland's weather since the end of May. "Each successive ridge has been stronger than the previous one," said Mote. This latest heat dome started to move over Greenland on July 8, and then parked itself over the ice sheet about three days later. By July 16, it had begun to dissipate.

As the ice warms, it loses albedo, i.e. less sunlight is reflected back into space. Darker surface absorbs more sunlight, accelerating the melting. The image below shows the Greenland ice sheet albedo from 2000 to 2011.

Credit: NOAA Arctic Report Card 2011.

The image below, from the meltfactor blog and by Jason Box and David Decker, shows the steep fall in reflectivity for altitudes up to 3200 meters in July 2012. 

The image below, from the meltfactor blog, shows how the year 2012 compares with the situation at approximately the same time in previous years, 2011 and 2010, which are recognized as being record melt years. 

The photo below shows how dark the ice sheet surface can become.

Photo shot by Jason Box on August 12, 2005

Loss of albedo occurs as the darker bare ground becomes visible where the ice has melted away. Darkening of snow and ice can start even before melting takes place. Warming changes the shape and size of the ice crystals in the snowpack, as described at this NASA Earth Observatory page. As temperatures rise, snow grains clump together and reflect less light than the many-faceted, smaller crystals. Additional heat rounds the sharp edges of the crystals, and round particles absorb more sunlight than jagged ones. 

Dirty ice surrounds a meltwater stream near the margin of the ice sheet. Compared to fresh snow and clean ice, the dark surface absorbs more sunlight, accelerating melting. © Henrik Egede Lassen/Alpha Film, from the Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic report from the U.N. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. From NOAA Climatewatch.

Another factor contributing to darkening is aerosols, in particular soot (i.e. black carbon) from fires and combustion of fuel, dust and organic compounds that enter the atmosphere and that can travel over long distances and settle on ice and snow in the Arctic. 

The July data since 2000, from the meltfactor blog, suggest a exponential fall in reflectivity that, when projected into the future (red line, added by Sam Carana), looks set to go into freefall next year. 

Is a similar thing happening all over the Arctic? Well, the map below, edited from a recent SSMIS Sea Ice Map, shows that sea ice concentration is highest around the North Pole. 

So, can water be expected to show up at the North Pole? Well have a look at the photo from the North Pole webcam below. 

Photo from the North Pole webcam

It does look like melting is going on at the North Pole. Water is significantly darker than ice, meaning the overall reflectivity will be substantially lowered by this water. 

It's important to realize that surface albedo change is just one out of a number of feedbacks, each of which deserves a closer look. 

As shown on the image below, the IPCC describes four types of feedbacks with a joint Radiative Forcing of about 2 W/sq m, i.e. water vapor, cloud, surface albedo and lapse rate. 

The image below, from James Hansen et al., may at first glance give the impression that all aerosols have a cooling effect. 

When components are split out further, it becomes clear though that some aerosols are reflective and have a cooling effect, whereas black carbon has a warming effect, while changes in snow albedo also contribute to warming. On the interactive graph below, you can click on or hover over each component to view their radiative forcing. When isolated from other factors, it's clear that snow albedo has an increasing warming effect.
How much could Earth warm up due to decline of snow and ice? Professor Peter Wadhams estimates that the drop in albedo in case of total loss of Arctic sea ice would be a 1.3 W/sq m rise in radiative forcing globally, while additional decline of ice and snow on land could push the the combined impact well over 2 W/sq m.

Locally, the impact could be even more dramatic. The image below, from Flanner et al., shows how much the snow and ice is cooling the Arctic. 

Image, edited by Sam Carana, from Mark Flanner et al. (2011).

Conversely, above image shows how much the Arctic could warm up without the snow and ice. Due to albedo change, sunlight that was previously reflected back into space will instead warm up the Arctic. What could have a big impact locally is that, where there's no more sea ice left, all the heat that previously went into melting will raise temperatures instead, as described at Warming in the Arctic.

The big danger is methane. Drew Shindell et al. show in Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions that inclusion of aerosol responses will give methane a much higher global warming potential (GWP) than the IPCC gave methane in AR4, adding that methane's GWP would likely be further increased by including ecosystem responses. Indeed, as pictured in the image below, accelerated warming in the Arctic could trigger methane releases which could cause further methane releases, escalating into runaway global warming. 

Runaway Global Warming

If you like, you can order prints of above image at Shutterfly (8 x 10 size works best).

Throw Your Arms Around Me

Of all the motivations that keep couples together, I suspect that love - in the sense of romantic love - is the least important. Anyone who has lived through at least one love and falling-out-of-love cycle understands the temporary nature of heart-pounding irrational obsessional love. It's a trick of nature to get us to breed, asap.

So what does keep people together? Despite media hysteria, lots of people find, marry, mate, and stick with one person for many years, if not forever. The secret must partly revolve around choosing the right person in the first place. That choice can naturally be driven by emotion, but relationships so founded require lots o' luck to last longer than their season.

Choosing well means asking difficult questions. All the love in the world won't overcome disagreements over all the other stuff of life, a partial list of which might look like:

~ religion
~ money
~ children
~ politics
~ morality
~ work ethic
~ physical fitness
~ recreation
~ socializing

And so on. No two people will ever agree completely on everything - knowing what are not, and what are deal-breakers is the most important part of all this. That requires clarity on the self-knowledge front, which is quite another field of exploration.

Presuming you choose well and find someone with whom the day-to-day stuff is close to frictionless, there's one more factor that I've learned, and it's this: Happiness and longevity in a relationship occur when folks wake up in the morning and ask themselves how they can make their partner's day better. It might only be making them a morning cup of tea, or sending a chirpy upbeat text for no reason, but the very act of placing someone else's wellbeing ahead of your own creates the right framework.

I think.



Bottoms Up, Huggers.

How to part ways with a climate denier that has incredible stamina...

Paul Beckwith, with other scientists in Ottawa
protesting against the "Death of Evidence"

By Paul Beckwith,

On a Canadian chess blog (chesstalk.com) there is a thread called “The NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever” that has been ongoing for over two years. Basically, I educate the chess community on climate change and many chess players that are rabid deniers gang up and hurl invective and deny fervently. A waste of time for me? Perhaps? Likely not, since it has hardened my resolve and energized me in my climate change study/research/lobbying/etc. etc. In fact, now I generally have great fun at hurling invective back until it starts to get out of hand. Then it is no longer fun or useful so I part-ways with the person, as happened tonight…


Mr/Mrs. XXXXX,

It used to bother me when people such as yourself that know absolutely squat about climate change (a subject in which I am an expert and forever striving to increase that expertise) make claims that are completely without scientific merit, in fact that are downright wrong, quite often intentionally wrong. Why? In most subjects this would not matter. Not so with climate change. Because our climate is collapsing around us and there are still many many people that fail to see this. So humanity will not act, and it will get worse and worse until there will not be a single person on the planet that does not experience gut-wrenching change. People are dying now, and will be dying in ever greater numbers from the near-term changes that are underway. Massive crop failure in the U.S. this year will not starve people in North America but will stress the economy and pocketbooks of many residents. It will starve people already in poverty who pay 25% or 50% of their incomes on food now. North Americans will not panic over one year of crop failure. However if it happens the following year, and the one after that, and after that then the system will snap.

Climate denialism and such nonsense no longer bothers me because I have learned how to deal with such people and views. As is absolutely required for anyone in the field of climatology. How? I initially take the time to explain some science and educate but when it is clear that I am dealing with an immovable object like yourself or yyyyy I just have some fun with it and hurl a few insults, etc. However this gets old and distracting and unproductive very quickly and wastes a lot of time. As it has now, in your case.

It no longer bothers me because our planet is now committed to this gut-wrenching change. The sea ice will be gone very soon and the roller coaster ride will be unstoppable. If I was Obama or Putin or any other world leader I would declare "War on Warming", cool the Arctic with geoengineering to keep the sea ice intact and the methane in the ground and undergo a crash program to slash emissions. But I am not. So I do what I can to educate people/inform them/get the word out. I join organizations like AMEG (Arctic Methane Emergency Group). I meet with politicians at all levels of government and talk about the urgency of climate change and necessity of rapidly cooling the Arctic. I have a clear conscience because I have tried. I know that many people around the world will die, I know that unbelievable changes are starting to occur and will explode in frequency, amplitude, spatial extent and impact over this decade, and I know that the general public will be in shock when their familiar climate system becomes a complete stranger to them...Personally, as I have acquired more and more knowledge over the course of my Ph.D. studies in abrupt climate change, I have passed through the shock stage, and the subsequent unaccepting stage of grief a long time ago, I am in the acceptance stage now.

Apologies, it was a blast to hurl invective back and forth, but I am not playing that game anymore. I will not be reading ANY of your posts on this thread, for a while anyway. I need a XXXXX break.

P.S. I did not take the time to write this post just for your sake alone. I am posting it, with your name removed, in social media under the heading "How to part ways with a climate denier that has incredible stamina . . .". Thanks for the learning experience.

Run Silent, Run Deep

If you recorded a video of me in the heat of a disagreement with a woman, you'd likely see me more frustrated than angry. For every ten words she gets out - like pinpoint jabs to the solar plexus - I'd stammer out two or three. And she'd brush them off. That's the frustrating part, the fact that we seem to work in different weight classes, or even different fighting disciplines. She's a lithe and wiry Thai boxer, I'm Hulk Hogan.

That's the problem. Woman can chop men up with a few well-placed zingers before we've even realized were in a fight. When her blood's up, I'm still lacing my boots while she's already counting a points victory - which is the other half of the disappointment, because by the time I have my mouthguard in and gloves on, she's already having a warm-down massage. Game over. I lose.

So what's the deal here? The mismatch of verbal skill between us is vast to the point of unfairness. Guys generally can't connect response to mouth anywhere near as fast as the lady, leaving us pondering a point from three minutes ago that's already been lost. Not only is it a transmission problem, it's a speed of connection problem.

You'll note here that I'm probably an extreme case. Not only do I intensely dislike disagreements that are in the least bit emotional, I actively avoid them. On the other hand, I love verbal jousting without the heat ie: when nothing's at stake. When we're cool and operating under the same rules, it's fun. As a result, I don't have much practice with the kind of hot conflict that's inevitable in any kind of long-term relationship. In the end I imagine that's deeply unsatisfying to women.

The next time that you think a man's a strong, silent type, consider this: he's silent only because the words are slow to be spoken, not because they're not there.



Bottoms Up, Fighters.

Greater Nashua Tri

Location: Nashua, NH
Distance: Sprint (.3mi s, 16mi b, 3.1mi r)
Participants: 382

While friends may discount their ability to complete a triathlon, I always try to bait them and say they don't have to do it all- there are relays, after all ;)  The way I see it, once they get a taste, you never know what might happen!

Maybe it was the wine and cocktails, or just good company, but I convinced some friends to do a relay a few months back.  Luckily I didn't have too many, so I remembered the next week to research some races that would fit with our schedules.  Between the six of us at the table, we decided on women versus men.  #Game On.

Our furry cheerleader!!

I did my best to quell any fears and convince everyone that they would do just fine in the race.  Before we knew it, race day was upon us and after a week of rain and cooler temps we had a gorgeous, sunny day.  The lake had cooled off a bit from their readings the week before, but not so much that our swimmers were uncomfortable sans wetsuit.  The sun did however make for a hot run as it got later on in the morning, as the first couple miles were not in the shade.

See, we were relaxed!!

Quite a different experience from competing in the entire race, all I had to setup was my bike stuff and make sure we all got bodymarked, knew how the transitions (aka timing chip handoff) should go and figure out the layout of the transition area.  It was strange watching the first wave go off and cheering on our swimmers, knowing that I wasn't going to be jumping in the water soon.  Another first was the chance to watch wetsuit strippers in action, they are pretty amazing!

heading out for the bike

The bike course is a lollipop which you do twice, I'd say it was pretty flat, with some gentle rollers.  Given the fact that I was only biking that day, I tried my best to push the pace as much as I could.  There was one turn that was poorly marked for some of the race.  Luckily there was someone there when I passed, but our other biker wasn't so fortunate and added an extra mile or two :/  I finished the bike in 49:54 (19.2mph), handed off the chip to our runner, and my day was done.

Well, sort of-- we backtracked from the finish and met our runner for the last half mile or so and finished strong as we got back to Camp Sargent :)

Post-race

Final Thoughts:  Our first tri was a success!  Especially when everyone said they'd be up for another relay (although I haven't gotten them to commit), and one or two of the men said they could see themselves doing the whole thing :)  I was pleased with my bike, especially given the craziness of this summer and inconsistency of my training up to this point.  Races always have a way of rekindling my love for triathlon, and this was no exception, especially because I got to share it with friends.

Congrats guys, you all did awesome!!  And thanks to Ed for being our photographer for the day!

Dating a Boson

Like everyone else, everything changed for me when I read that a bunch of smarties with a few billion dollars worth of kit discovered that the Higgs boson exists. Announced on the otherwise auspicious date of July 4, confirmation that such an animal lives outside mathematical equations is like the dawning of a new era.  

So it was with some disappointment in the following days that I observed little or no difference in the world outside the Large Hadron Collider ie: where you and I live. Drivers on the freeway behaved, as ever, like teenaged children on crack; mainstream media treated us, still, as teenaged children on Xanax; peace and understanding, yet again, failed to break out all over. Men and women sorta did, and sorta didn't, get each other. Everything changed, and it all actually remained the same.

But let's not despair at this, all is not lost. The good news is that TomKat are (is?) divorcing, so there's one more child out of danger, and Suri will be okay too. There is good evidence - from Tom's three exes - that women turning thirty who have children start to see life with more clarity. The gooey love-sauce fame-and-looks obsession of their twenties gives way to the reality of doing the right thing by the children, which in this case amounts to rescuing them from a cult. 

It seems about right to me that no-one should be allowed to marry until their thirtieth birthday. Better still would be if we were helped to understand why not, and chose not to of our own volition. Too many high-school sweethearts marry at twenty-two and find themselves divorced a few years later. How can the children of these unions overcome this model of parenthood?

In that light, I advocate the twenties as the Dating Decade - the more, the better. No marriage, just ten years of figuring out yourself and how you fit with others. It's possible this might have more impact than applied particle physics, as much as atom smashing underground in Switzerland might give you a hard-on.


Bottoms Up, Physicists.

How extreme will it get?

The January-June period was the warmest first half of any year on record for the contiguous United States, reports NOAA in its June 2012 overview. The national temperature of 52.9°F was 4.5°F (2.5°C) above average. 

The United States Department of Agriculture has designated 1,016 primary counties in 26 states as natural disaster areas, making it the largest natural disaster in America ever.  

The U.S. Drought Monitor has declared 80% of the Contiguous U.S. to be abnormally dry or worse, with 61% experiencing drought conditions ranging from moderate to exceptional—the largest percentage in the 12-year history of the service.  

In the 18 primary corn-growing states, 30% of the crop is in poor or very poor condition. In addition, fully half of the nation’s pastures and ranges are in poor or very poor condition. The year-to-date acreage burned by wildfires has increased to 3.1 million. 

NOAA reports record temperatures in many places; in Mc Cook, Neb., it was 115°F (46°C) on June 26, while in Norton Dam, Kan., it was 118°F (48°C) on June 28. Meanwhile, it was 126°F (52°C) in Death Valley National Park on July 10, 2012.

Lake Michigan surface water temperatures recently reached temperatures of up to 83.9°F (29°C), as shown on the image right. Lake Michigan has a surface area of 22,400 square miles (58,000 square kilometers). The lake's average depth is 279 ft (85 m), while its greatest depth is 923 ft (281 m). The image below compares 2012 surface water temperature with the average for 1992-2011.

Earlier this year, in March 2012, another heatwave hit much the same area. A NOAA analysis of the heatwave notes the abrupt onset of the warmth at Minneapolis, Duluth, and International Falls on 10 March. On subsequent days, anomalies of well over 20°C (36°F) were recorded as shown on the image on the right.

Temperature anomalies of 27+°F (15+°C) were recorded in a large area from March 12th to March 23rd, 2012, as shown below. 

 

Global warming is responsible for much of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and this is linked to developments in the Arctic, where accelerated warming is changing the jet stream, concludes an analysis by Rutgers University professor Jennifer Francis.

Apart from the obvious impact that droughts and heatwaves have on food and fresh water supply, they also come with wildfires that cause additional emissions, constituting a further positive feedback that further contributes to global warming, while the additional soot makes things even worse in the Arctic.

All this combines to create a situation in the Arctic where extreme local warming events can trigger methane releases, causing further local warming and further releases of methane, in a vicious cycle that threatens to escalate into runaway global warming that feeds on itself.  

The above image pictures the three kinds of warming (red lines) and their main causes:

1. Emissions by people cause global warming, with temperatures rising around the globe, including the Arctic.
2. Soot, dust and volatile organic compounds settle down on snow and ice, causing albedo change. More heat is absorbed, rather than reflected as was previously the case. This causes accelerated warming in the Arctic.
3. Accelerated warming in the Arctic threatens to weaken methane stores in the Arctic with the danger that releases will cause runaway global warming.
   
   

In addition, there are at least three feedback effects (gold lines) that make things even worse:

• Fires feedback: Accelerated warming in the Arctic is changing the Jet Stream, contributing to increased frequency and intensity of droughts and heatwaves.
• Albedo feedback: Accelerated warming in the Arctic also speeds up the decline of ice and snow cover, further accelerating albedo change.
• Methane feedback: Methane releases in the Arctic further add to the acceleration of warming in the Arctic, further contributing to weaken Arctic methane stores, in a vicious cycle that threatens to escalate into runaway global warming.

Rapid warming periods in the past constitute an ominous warning. In a paper published about a year ago, Ruhl et al. conclude that the end-Triassic mass extinction, about 200 million years ago, started with global warming due to carbon dioxide from volcanoes. This also caused warming of oceans and melting of hydrates at the bottom of the sea, containing methane created by millions of years of decomposing sea life. The hydrates released some 12,000 gigatons of methane, causing global warming to accelerate and resulting in sudden extinction of about half the species on Earth at the time.

The above image pictures how a similar thing could happen in our times, with global warming leading to accelerated warming in the Arctic, triggering hydrate destabilization and abrupt release of, say, 1 Gt of methane, which would further accelerate Arctic warming and lead to subsequent releases of methane from hydrates.

For more details on above two graphs, see the page How much time is there left to act?

Could extreme weather, like the U.S. is now experiencing, also occur in the Arctic?

Well, it actually did, not too long ago. Above image on the right, from the Cryosphere Today, shows air temperature anomalies in the Arctic of up to 6°C (10.8°F) for the month September 2007.

By how much will the sea warm up during such extreme local warming events?

The image on the right, produced with NOAA data, shows mean coastal sea surface temperatures of over 10°C (50°F) in some areas in the Arctic on August 22, 2007.

How extreme was this?

The image below, from NOAA, shows that sea surface temperature anomalies of over 5.5 were recorded for August 2007 in some areas in the Arctic.



Could such warming reach the bottom of the sea?

Again, this did happen in 2007, when strong polynya activity caused more summertime open water in the Laptev Sea, in turn causing more vertical mixing of the water column during storms in late 2007, according to one study, and bottom water temperatures on the mid-shelf increased by more than 3°C (5.4°F) compared to the long-term mean.

Another study finds that drastic sea ice shrinkage causes increase in storm activities and deepening of the wind-wave-mixing layer down to depth ~50 m (164 ft) that enhance methane release from the water column to the atmosphere. Indeed, the danger is that heat will warm up sediments under the sea, containing methane in hydrates and as free gas, causing large amounts of this methane to escape rather abruptly into the atmosphere.

Would this heat be able to penetrate sediments?

The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., shows that hydrates can exist at the end of conduits in the sediment, formed when methane did escape from such hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast, warming up the hydrates and destabilizing them in the process, which can result in huge abrupt releases of methane.

Since waters can be very shallow in the Arctic, much of the methane can rise up through these waters without getting oxidized.

Shakova and Semiletov warn, in a 2010 presentation, that some 75% of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is shallower than 50 m, as shown on the image below. Furthermore, the ESAS region alone has an accumulated methane potential of some 1700 Gt in the form of free gas and hydrates under the sediment, in addition to organic carbon in its permafrost.

As the methane causes further warming in the atmosphere, this will contribute to the danger of even further methane escaping, further accelerating local warming, in a vicious cycle that can lead to catastrophic conditions well beyond the Arctic.

Above image shows the carbon in the melting permafrost, estimated by Schuur et al. at 1700 Gt. Much of this carbon could also be released as methane under warmer and wetter conditions.

Under warmer and dry conditions, things wouldn't be much better. The 2010 heatwave in Russia provides a gloomy preview of what could happen as temperatures rise at high latitudes. Firestorms in the peat-lands, tundras and forests in Siberia could release huge amounts of emissions, including soot, much of which could settle on the ice in the Himalaya Tibetan plateau, melting the glaciers there and causing short-term flooding, followed by rapid decline of the flow of ten of Asia's largest river systems that originate there, with more than a billion people's livelihoods depending on the continued flow of this water.

Dessert from the Garden: Strawberry Shortcake

My wife's favorite dessert is strawberry shortcake. The strawberries' bright, sweet taste evokes everything that is wonderful about warm summer days.

For Zesterdaily, I wrote a strawberry shortcake recipe using candied ginger in the batter to give the cakes a sweet-heat.  With strawberries available in such abundance, having strawberry shortcake isn't a luxury, it is one of summer's affordable and easy-to-make treats.

Cerealization

Finding the right person can be a chore or a delight, depending upon how you look at it. Yes, first dates can be energy-sapping. Yes, meeting so many incompatibles is dispiriting. Yes, you will question your will to live. Too often you'll wonder how so many weird, self-absorbed, boring, ill and frankly unappealing people think they might have a future with your bright, optimistic, balanced, gorgeous self. But we must endure.

I compare the process to deciding upon a breakfast cereal - in a world of infinite choice, start by precluding huge swathes. For instance, anyone over the age of ten should consider avoiding any cereal with an animal or super-hero mascot. Then there are the key words 'pops', 'frosted', 'loops', and 'smacks', all of which tell you that nutrition can be found in the box, but only inasmuch as you think cups of sugar are good for you.

The big-picture dating prospects to avoid IMO are folks with an untreated depressive illness; those who have any kind of addictive partiality; anyone with unresolved parental or family difficulties; and anyone who doesn't floss.

Shoot me, but I believe in immaculate oral hygiene.

Given that first dates - or a bunch of them strung together - are exhausting, we can filter a lot of maybes beforehand by figuring if any of the big deal-breakers (above) pertain. You can get pretty good at ferreting out the info you need with well-timed pre-date questions, eg:

So, are you an alcoholic?

or

I'm on anti-depressants myself. You too?

See how I did that without alerting them?

Once it looks as if they're not Froot Loops or Cap'n Crunch, then a first date is worth a shot. Still and all, low expectations will keep you mentally upright, because even the best filters are only a start.


Bottoms Up, Shoppers.

The Mermaid Conundrum

Long sea-borne men of yore yearned for the sight of women so much that their imaginations went nuts. The power of desire for anything feminine - together with the isolation - sent their minds on weird pathways, including morphing fish into females. Such is the power you have over us. No wonder that when explorers found themselves in places like Tahiti, with its ripely available beauties, they had to trick their crews into leaving.

The attraction of the half-fish, half woman is two-fold:

1. She cannot run away when caught.

2. She is, for the most part, bare-breasted (or close enough).

The sub-text is that the mermaid is both attainable and detainable, fitting right into the fantasy template - after all, what use is there dreaming of something uncatchable?

 (We need to think like a horny sailor stuck on a stinky sailboat during a years-long voyage here to capture the zeitgeist.)

All-in-all, mermaids are women, perfected. They're available mid-ocean if one uses the right bait, they won't escape if lured shipboard and they're sexually out there. Regarding the matter of below-the-waist details, I shall refrain from making tasteless banter about whether they de-scale. Some waters are best left uncharted.

It occurs to me that land-only ladies share at least one mermaid attraction, the high-heeled shoe. Heels hinder you running away just as a lower-half flipper slows the mermaid down. We like a little chase, but want the odds stacked on our side.



Bottoms Up, Stilletos.

Albedo change in the Arctic

Albedo change: Snow cover on the ice reflects between 80% and 90% of sunlight, while the dark ocean without ice cover reflects only 7% of the light, explains Stephen Hudson of the Norwegian Polar Institute. As the sea ice cover decreases, less solar radiation is reflected away from the surface of the Earth in a feedback effect that causes more heat to be absorbed and consequently melting to occur faster still.

Arctic sea ice volumes keep falling. The image below is from the Polar Science Center's Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003).

As shown on the image below, by Wipneus and earlier published at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, sea ice volume is on track to reach a minimum of 3000 cubic kilometers this summer.

The recent sea ice volume is in line with the exponential trend calculated by Wipneus that is pointing at zero ice volume around 2015 (image below).

 

As described earlier, I believe that a trendline pointing at 2014 fits the data best (image left).

While some ice may persist close to Greenland for a few years more, this applies only to a relatively small area; this does not revert the curve downwards as it applies to the remainder of the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, there is robust evidence that global warming will increase the intensity of extreme weather events, so more heavy winds and more intense storms can be expected to increasingly break up the remaining sea ice in future, driving the smaller parts out of the Arctic Ocean more easily.

Apart from the albedo change that comes with this loss of sea ice, there's also the loss of snow cover on land. Snow cover over Northern Hemisphere lands retreated rapidly in May and June, leaving the Arctic Ocean coastline nearly snow free, says the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC), adding that this rapid and early retreat of snow cover exposes large, darker underlying surfaces to the sun early in the season, fostering higher air temperatures and warmer soils. 

The NSIDC illustrates this with the edited Rutgers University Global Snow Lab image below.  

Another image from Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, shown below, illustrates the anomalies in snow cover on Northern Hemisphere lands over the years. 

The joint impact of loss of sea ice and loss of snow cover on land will make a huge difference; much more sunlight is now absorbed, instead of reflected back as was previously the case.

Below are calculations by Professor Peter Wadhams, University of Cambridge. Earth has a total surface area of 510,072,000 square km (196,888,000 square miles), as the table below shows, by Michael Pidwirny, or about 510 million square km. 

Surface	Percent of Earth’s Total Surface Area	Area Square Kilometers	Area Square Miles
Earth’s Surface Area Covered by Land	29.2%	148,940,000	57,491,000
Earth’s Surface Area Covered by Water	70.8%	361,132,000	139,397,000
Pacific Ocean	30.5%	155,557,000	60,045,000
Atlantic Ocean	20.8%	76,762,000	29,630,000
Indian Ocean	14.4%	68,556,000	26,463,000
Southern Ocean	4.0%	20,327,000	7,846,000
Arctic Ocean	2.8%	14,056,000	5,426,000

Professor Wadhams estimates the present summer area of sea ice at 4 million square km, with a summer albedo of about 0.60 (surface covered with melt pools). When the sea ice disappears, this is replaced by open water with an albedo of about 0.10. This will reduce the albedo of a fraction 4/510 of the earth's surface by an amount 0.50. The average albedo of Earth at present is about 0.29. So, the disappearance of summer ice will reduce the global average albedo by 0.0039, which is about 1.35% relative to its present value.

As NASA describes, a drop of as little as 0.01 in Earth’s albedo would have a major warming influence on climate—roughly equal to the effect of doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which would cause Earth to retain an additional 3.4 watts of energy for every square meter of surface area.

Based on these figures, Professor Wadhams concludes that a drop in albedo of 0.0039 is equivalent to a 1.3 W/sq m increase in radiative forcing globally. 

The albedo change resulting from the snowline retreat on land is similarly large, so the combined impact could be well over 2 W/sq m. By comparison, this would more than double the net 1.6 W/sq m radiative forcing resulting from the emissions caused by all people of the world (see IPCC image below). Professor Wadhams adds: "Remember that this is going to happen in only about 3 years if the predictions of alarmist glaciologists like myself are correct".

References:

1. PIOMAS, Washington University, Polar Science Center
2. National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC), July 5, 2012, Rapid sea ice retreat in June
3. Rutgers University, Global Snow Lab
4. Wikipedia, Earth
5. NASA Earth Observatory, May 10, 2005, Earth's Albedo in Decline
6. IPCC, Working Group I, Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers
7. Pidwirny, M. (2006). "Introduction to the Oceans". Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition.