For New Year's Eve: A Favorite Cocktail

The holidays are a great time to break the work routine, slow down the daily tempo, and hang out with friends and family.

Cold weather makes the outdoors less hospitable. A warm kitchen invites like no other room in the house.  Pulling together appetizers, a salad, main dish, and a couple of desserts, is a lot of work but also great fun. 

With New Year's Eve tonight, I'm turning to an old favorite, a drink that evokes the sweetness and excitement of the tropics.

Because there are edible pieces of fruit at the bottom, include a spoon so the cocktail can be enjoyed as a drink and an appetizer all in one.

Tropical Rum Cocktail

Yield: 4

Time: 10 minutes

Ingredients

1 cup white rum

2 Fuyu persimmons, ripe, slightly soft, finely chopped

1 cup fresh orange juice, sweet

1/4 cup fresh lime juice

4 tablespoons powdered sugar

16 ice cubes

Method

Pour the white rum into a pitcher, add the powdered sugar, and stir well to dissolve. Add the finely chopped persimmons, orange and lime juice, and stir well to combine.

Put 4 ice cubes and a spoon into each glass, pour in the drink, making certain that the persimmon pieces are divided equally and serve.

Variations

Top with a fresh sprig of mint

Adjust the proportion of orange and lime juice, to taste

Substitute finely chopped mango, strawberries, kiwi, or fresh passion fruit for persimmons

Under the Doormat

Dating and being with someone should be as natural as breathing, shouldn't it.

Shouldn't it?

So if it's not that simple, why not, and why do we spend so much time working at it?

All successful relationships have one factor in common, which is a mutual fit of expectation and willingness.

Willingness is the lock into which we insert our expectation.

Expectation is the key we hope fits his or her willingness.

We all have a lock, and we all have a key. We're not only looking for the person with the right lock for our key, we're also hoping that person has the right key for our lock.

If you think the odds are bad for finding that person, be not discouraged. We all have the power to change our own lock and our own key. You decide whether you have one of those long, complicated, difficult to replicate keys, or whether you prefer a more simple style. Likewise your lock.

However, as with any endeavour in this universe, there is an element of luck - aka randomness - involved. You might have the most straightforward lock, and a standard (but secure) key, and still not find the one.

Not today, anyway.




Bottoms Up, Locksmiths.

How to avoid mass-scale death, destruction and extinction

The FAO Food Price Index shows that high food prices have been around for the past few years. The FAO, in its recent Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, explains that we can expect prices to rise, as illustrated below.

The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture mentions, in its Food Price Outlook, 2012-2013, that the "drought has affected prices for corn and soybeans as well as other field crops which should, in turn, drive up retail food prices".

Global food supply is under stress as extreme weather becomes the new norm. Farmers may be inclined to respond to drought by overusing ground water, or by slashing and burning forest, in efforts to create more farmland. Such practices do not resolve the problems; instead, they tend to exacerbate the problems over time, making things progressively worse.

The diagram below shows that there are many climatological feedbacks (ten of which are pictured) that make climate change worse. At the top, the diagram pictures vicious cycles that are responses by farmers that can add to make the situation even worse. Without effective action, the prospect is that climate change and crop failure combine to cause mass death and destruction, with extinction becoming the fourth development of global warming.

How can we avoid that such a scenario will eventuate? Obviously, once we are in the fourth development, i.e. mass-scale famine and extintion, it will be too late for action. Similarly, if the world moves into the third development, i.e. runaway global warming, it will be hard, if not impossible to reverse such a development. Even if we act now, it will be hard to reverse the second development, i.e. accelerated warming in the Arctic.

The most effective action will target causes rather than symptoms of these developments.

Part 1. Since emissions are the cause of global warming, dramatic cuts in emissions should be included in the first part of the responses. In addition, action is needed to remove excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and oceans. Storing the carbon in the soil will also improve soil quality, as indicated by the long green arrow on the left.

Part 2. Solar radiation management is needed to cool the Arctic.

Part 3. Methane management and further action is needed, e.g. to avoid that methane levels will rise further in the Arctic, which threatens to trigger further releases and escalate into runaway global warming. Measures to reduce methane can also benefit soil quality worldwide, as indicated by the long green arrow on the right.

Thus, the proposed action tackles the prospect of mass death and extinction by increasing soil fertility, as illustrated by the image below.

As indicated at the bottom of the image, the most effective policies to accomplish the goals set out in both part 1. and part 3. are feebates, preferably implemented locally.

Pomegranate Lemonade

If you're still looking for a sassy cocktail to ring in the new year, look no further.  A little sweet and a little tart, this pomegranate lemonade is ready to be made sparkling!

Pomegranate Lemonade
recipe by Shannon

1c water
1/4c honey
3/4c meyer lemon juice
1/4c lemon juice
1c pomegranate juice
2-6c seltzer
sparkling wine, if desired
pomegranate seeds, for garnish

Begin by making a honey simple syrup.  Add water and honey to a small saucepan and heat over medium heat until the honey dissolves.  Remove from heat and set aside.

To a pitcher, add lemon juices (strain if necessary), pomegranate juice and honey simple syrup.  Begin by adding 1c of seltzer, mix and taste.  Adjust to taste with more seltzer, as desired.  Serve with sparkling wine, if desired.  Garnish with fresh pomegranate seeds.

May 2013 be filled with tasty eats and fitness milestones!!

High methane levels persist in December 2012

The image below was posted earlier at Methane contributes to accelerated warming in the Arctic. As mentioned there, this is a compilation of images produced by Dr. Leonid Yurganov, comparing methane levels between November 21-30, 2008 (below left), and November 21-30, 2012 (below right).

Dr. Yurganov has released two further images this year, i.e. for December 1-10, 2012 (below left), and for December 11-20, 2012 (below right).

The images show that the highest methane levels show up above the water, as opposed to above land, indicating that methane is being released from the seabed across the Arctic. The images further show that high levels of methane persist in December 2012.

Apart from comparing 10-day periods, we can also look at methane levels for individual days. The NOAA image below shows methane levels up to 2167 ppb on December 27, 2012, for the morning set of measurements.

To better see where the high (yellow) levels of methane were measured, a map with empty data is added below, showing the location of the continents more clearly on the map.

Pressure levels at which measurements are taken are displayed in hectopascals (symbol hPa) which are numerically equivalent to millibars (mb). A pressure of 600 mb (or hPa) corresponds with an altitude of 13794.9 ft (4204.7 m). By comparison, air pressure at mean sea level is 1013.25 hPa (millibar), or 29.92 inches of mercury.

The map below, from apocalypse4realmethane2012, shows methane measurements taken on the same day (December 27, 2012, morning set), but at 718 mb, which corresponds with an altitude that is a bit closer down to sea level. The map focuses on the Arctic and shows geographic names. If you like, click on the map to enlarge it.

Methane measurements were taken with the IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) instrument, fitted onto the European Space Agencys (ESA) MetOp series of polar orbiting satellites.

For further analysis, the NOAA image with surface temperature anomalies for December 28, 2012, is added above, showing anomalies up to 20 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, the NOAA image with sea surface temperature anomalies for December 27, 2012, is added below, showing anomalies up to 5 degrees Celsius.

Albedo changes in the Arctic

How global warming and feedbacks are causing huge albedo changes in the Arctic.

Snow cover decline

Decline of the snow cover on land in the northern hemisphere is accelerating, as illustrated by the image below and the image underneath on the right. (1)

Image credit: Rutgers University

Fresh snow can have an albedo as high as 0.85, meaning that up to 85% of the sunlight falling on snow can get reflected back into space. As the snow melts, its structure changes making it less reflective, i.e. its albedo will go down, to as low as 40%. (2)

As a result, more sunlight gets absorbed, accelerating the melting process. Eventually, where snow melts away, spots of bare soil become exposed, and dark wet soil has a very low albedo, reflecting only between 5% and 15% of the sunlight. Thus, even more sunlight gets absorbed and the soil's temperature increases, causing more of the remaining snow to melt. (2)

Changes in vegetation can further accelerate this process. Russia's boreal forest - the largest continuous expanse of forest in the world - has seen a transformation in recent years from larch to conifer trees. Larch trees drop their needles in the fall, allowing the vast, snow-covered ground in winter to reflect sunlight and heat back into space and helping to keep temperatures in the region very cold. But conifers such as spruce and fir retain their needles, which absorb sunlight and increase the forest's ground-level heat retention. (3)

Albedo, from Wikipedia

A conversion from larch to evergreen stands in low-diversity regions of southern Siberia would generate a local positive radiative forcing of 5.1±2.6 W m−2. This radiative heating would reinforce the warming projected to occur in the area under climate change. (4)

Tundra in the Arctic used to be covered by a white blanket of snow most of the year. However, as the landscape is warming up, more trees and shrubs appear. Scientists who studied part of the Eurasian Arctic, found that willow and alder shrubs, once stunted by harsh weather, have been growing upward to the height of trees in recent decades. They now rise above the snowfall, presenting a dark, light-absorbing surface. This increased absorption of the Sun's radiation, combined with microclimates created by forested areas, adds to global warming, making an already-warming climate warm even more rapidly. (5 & 6)

Furthermore, encroachment of trees onto Arctic tundra caused by the warming may cause large release of carbon to the atmosphere, concludes a recent study. This is because tundra soil contains a lot of stored organic matter, due to slow decomposition, but the trees stimulate the decomposition of this material. (7)


Sea ice decline

In the Arctic, sea ice volume has fallen dramatically over the years, as illustrated by the image on the right. The trend points at 2014 as the year when Arctic sea ice will first reach zero volume for some time during that year. (8)

The Arctic Ocean looks set to be ice-free for a period of at least three months in 2015 (August, September and October), and for a period of at least 6 months from the year 2020 (June through to November). (9)

Decline of the Arctic sea ice is accelerating, due to numerous feedbacks. As the Arctic atmosphere warms up, any snow cover on top of the ice will melt away ever quickly, decreasing the surface albedo and thus reinforcing the warm-up. As melt ponds appear on top of the ice, the albedo will drop even further.

Sam Carana's Diagram of Doom pictures ten feedbacks that jointly work to accelerate sea ice decline. (10)

The image below shows the three areas where albedo change will be felt most in the Arctic, i.e. sea ice loss, decline of albedo in Greenland and more early and extensive retreat of snow and ice cover in other areas in the Arctic. (8)

Big changes in the Arctic within years, by Sam Carana

References

1. Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies 1967-2012 June, Rutgers University
climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6

2. Albedo, Albedo Change blog
albedochange.blogspot.com/2009/02/albedo-change.html

3. Shift in Northern Forests Could Increase Global Warming, Scientific American, March 28, 2011
scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=shift-northern-forests-increase-global-warming

4. Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change, Shuman et al., April 5, 2011, Wiley.com
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02417.x/abstract

5. Warming turns tundra to forest
ox.ac.uk/media/news_stories/2012/120604.html

6. Eurasian Arctic greening reveals teleconnections and the potential for structurally novel ecosystems, Macias-Fauria et al., 2012
nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n8/full/nclimate1558.html

7. Expansion of forests in the European Arctic could result in the release of carbon dioxide, University of Exeter news, June 18, 2012
exeter.ac.uk/news/featurednews/title_214902_en.html

8. Big changes in the Arctic within years, Sam Carana, October 26, 2012, Arctic-News blog
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/big-changes-in-arctic-within-years.html

9. Getting the Picture, Sam Carana, August 2012, Arctic-News blog
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/getting-the-picture.html

10. Diagram of Doom, Sam Carana, August 2012, Arctic-News blog
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html


Further reading

- Albedo change in the Arctic
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/albedo-change-in-arctic.html

- Greenland is melting at incredible rate
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/greenland-is-melting-at-incredible-rate.html

- Albedo change in the Arctic threatens to cause runaway global warming
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/albedo-change-in-the-arctic-threatens-to-cause-runaway-global-warming.html

Shortrib Risotto

I hope everyone is having a wonderful holiday!  As luck would have it, we got just enough snow for a white Christmas :)  A few days at home with my family was fabulous, but all too short...

While I tend not to make meals that take 4 hours to cook, I apparently got stars in my eyes when faced with a few days at home!  Awhile back I had seen Dan's recipe and was intrigued by the shortribs + chocolate + cauliflower.  While it was a bit intimidating, I knew the three hours of braising time was hands-off and with a good plan of attack it would be totally do-able.  This is definitely not a weeknight meal, but was perfect for a nice dinner with some good friends.  I bet it would also be perfect for your new year's eve dinner as well!

Here was my plan of attack:
Prep veggies and sear ribs (30min)
Braise ribs (3hr)  [prep remaining ingredients during braising time]
Make broth (30min)  [put cauliflower in to roast once broth is boiling]
Make risotto (30min)

It worked out to be about 30min on the front end, then about an hour once the braising was done.  Understanding the recipe beforehand and mise en place were the keys to success!  I've also included a few tips, including the option to make this into a weeknight meal by braising the shortribs ahead of time (on the weekend).

Shortrib Risotto w/Chile Chocolate Cauliflower
slightly adapted from Food In My Beard
Serves 4

For the braised shortribs:
1T extra virgin olive oil
2 1/2lbs bone-in grass-fed short ribs
3 stalks celery, diced
4 medium carrots, diced
1 large onion, diced
5 cloves garlic, minced
salt and freshly ground black pepper
fresh thyme sprigs (I used a small bunch)
1t yellow mustard seed
2t coriander seeds
1 parmesan rind
2 dried chiles (I used 1 pasilla negro and 1 new mexico chile)

Preheat oil in a large dutch oven over medium-high heat.  Dry off your shortribs and sprinkle generously with salt and pepper.  Add to the hot pan and sear on all sides, a few minutes on each side.  Remove ribs from the pan and set aside in a dish.

Preheat the oven to 300deg.

Lower the heat to medium-low and add celery, carrots and onion to the pan.  Stir and cook until they soften and start to brown.  Add garlic and cook another minute or two.  Return the shortribs to the pan along with any accumulated juices.  Add remaining ingredients and then enough water to come ~1/2 way up the meat (mine was probably 2/3, and could be as little as 1/3 of the way up the ribs).  Cover the pan and transfer to the oven.  Braise the ribs for ~3hours.

This was my first time braising, so I had to do some reading to figure out what the heck I was doing.  In case you're in the same boat, the goal here is to heat the liquid to a gentle simmer and have steam forming inside the dutch oven to aid in cooking.  I checked mine at one point and it was at a robust boil, so I cracked the lid ever-so-slightly (perhaps it was ok or maybe I should've just lowered the oven a bit).

Tip: While the shortribs are braising in the oven, get the rest of the ingredients ready and then go do a load of laundry, hop on your bike trainer, or do whatever else needs taking care of!

When the meat is done braising, remove the pot from the oven.  Place the ribs onto a plate and let cool a bit (mine had completely fallen off the bone at this point).  To make a stock from the braising liquid, put the pot on the burner and bring to a rolling boil for ~20min.  Strain the liquid through a fine mesh strainer into a fat separator.  Press on the solids to remove as much liquid as you can, and then discard the solids.  Let the liquid settle for ~5min, and then strain off the fat.  Add broth to a medium saucepan and put on low heat for the risotto.

While the braising liquid is boiling, pull off the meat from the shortribs.  I don't like fat on my meat, so I was quite...  precise ;)  I have since read a tip that you can cool the ribs in the fridge overnight for easy removal of fat.  Reserve the meat for the risotto and discard the fat.

Tip:  This could be prepared in two steps- day 1 braise the shortribs and make the stock, day 2 reheat stock and make the risotto and cauliflower.

For the risotto:
1T extra virgin olive oil
1 small onion, diced
2 cloves garlic, minced
1c arborio rice
3/4c red wine
1/2c grated parmesan
1oz dark chocolate (70% or higher, I used Taza)
shortrib stock, see above
extra stock, if needed (I used vegetable)

Heat oil in a large pot over medium-low heat (I used the same dutch oven after the stock was ready).  Add onion, stir to coat, then saute for 5-8min, until softened but not browned.  Add garlic and rice, stir to coat and cook a few more minutes.  Add wine to deglaze the pan, scraping off all the flavorful bits at the bottom of the pot.  Stirring frequently, add ladles of stock each time the liquid cooks off (I used some vegetable broth once I was out of the homemade stock).  Cook until rice is al dente, ~20-30min.  dd the shredded beef back to the risotto, and a little more stock so the risotto is nice and creamy, not too dry.  Turn off the heat and add the parmesan and chocolate, stirring until melted and well combined.  Serve, topped with chile chocolate cauliflower.

For the chile chocolate cauliflower:
1 head cauliflower
2T butter, melted
1-2t chile powder (mine is pretty spicy so I used 1t)
11/2t cocoa powder

Preheat the oven to 400deg.

Chop up the cauliflower into florets and add them to a large bowl.  Add chile poder and cocoa powder, then toss to combine.  Add the melted butter and toss until coated.  Spread on a baking sheet and bake 20-30min, or until tender.  Enjoy on its own, or on top of shortrib risotto.

Have you ever made shortribs before?  What are your New Year's Eve plans?

Groove Is In The Heart

I can't think of any physical skill more attractive to women than the ability to dance. Being a surgeon, perhaps, or a tradesman, like a plumber.

Nah, dancing wins hands-down. How often will you need a surgeon or a plumber in a lifetime, versus how often can you dance in a lifetime? Dancing's something you can do every day, and probably should.

Whenever I think of a male dancing role-model, Fred Astaire comes to mind. That's archaic, and more than a little weird considering he was born in 1899 and made movies with Ginger Rogers more than eighty years ago. Surely there are more recent male dancers?

John Travolta circa Saturday Night Fever? (Disco, Yeah!)

Sammy Davis Junior?

Ummmmmm....Gregory Hines?

You see I think this is a huge opportunity for average males like me. Attracting women necessarily has a marketing angle - separating yourself from the competition is part of the game. But the overwhelming majority of guys have a mental block about dancing. Partly that's because there's an effeminate feel to it - incorrectly, BTW - and partly because to be even mildly accomplished takes a lot of mental and physical effort.  

Which brings us to dancing schools. Dancing schools are a kind of anti-matter organization for guys like me. As much as we'd like to try, we don't want to exhibit our complete unco-ordination to a group of strangers. Likewise, we don't want the instructor hectoring us while we are demonstrating just how slow/stupid/clumsy/cloven-hoofed we are.

...no, no NO, like this...two-three...and this two-three...can't you feel the music?...

You understand the mental picture we have - that of a smallish, well dressed man in front of the class speaking contemptuously to the clod with donkey-feet. Me.

The answer is probably one-on-one instruction until I'm good enough for group classes. Given enough patient coaching, time, and practice, there's no reason even I couldn't get half-decent at tango. It's not like I have no rhythm - it just needs a little coaxing.

The reward of being masterful with a woman right up close in public speaks for itself. Olé.



Bottoms Up, Tangoistas.

Sexy, Seared Scallops Help Say Goodbye to 2012 and Hello to 2013

Cooking long hours is fun on Thanksgiving but on New Year's Eve nobody wants to be in the kitchen except to pass through on the way to the freezer to refill the ice bucket.

The perfect at-home meal on New Year's Eve is one that has pazazz, great flavor and doesn't take long to prepare.

With expectations high, everything about a New Year's Eve party needs to be special

Take-out deli sandwiches are fine to watch the weekly football game. Pizza and beer works for a Netflix festival of Tarantino movies. But for the night when you say goodbye to a whole year's experience and celebrate what's-hoped-for in the coming 365 days, it isn't enough to simply put food on the table.

If you're having a small gathering of friends and loved ones, easy-to-make scallops are an elegantly delicious way to tell everyone how much you love sharing this end-of-the-year evening with them.

Experimenting with samples of Alaskan seafood sent to me by the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, I have been happily trying out different techniques with their halibut, cod, king crab legs and salmon.

The Alaskan scallops, caught off the Kodiak coast, were beautifully plump and firm. The size of fifty cent coins, since they were thick, they could hold up to the high heat of searing.

Scallops play well with others
Because scallops have a delicate flavor, they work well with buttery, sautéed spinach and earthy shiitake mushrooms. They are also good sliced and sautéd before being tossed with pasta in a sauce of roasted tomato sauce and garlic.

With dense flesh, scallops mimic the hearty flavor of steak so they can be seared whole with thick cut onion rings.

Scallops go well with a crisp, chilled white wine, an icy cold beer or, my favorite,  a perfect Manhattan. Whatever beverage accompanies your scallops, you can toast all that was good about 2012 and all that you hope for in 2013.

Seared Scallops on a Bed of Sautéed Spinach and Shiitake Mushrooms

As with any seared dish, obtaining the best quality ingredients is an essential starting point. Whether you are searing fish, shellfish, poultry or meat, high heat creates a blush of caramelized sweetness on the outside. After that, the dish is all about what's on the inside.

Key to searing is using a pan that can tolerate high heat. Stainless steel pans should not be used because too much work is required to clean them.

A cast iron pan or one designed specially for high heat cooking is preferred and can be found in restaurant supply stores like Surfas in Culver City. To prepare this dish, I used the French de Buyer carbon steel frying pan which is designed to be used at very high heat with only a small amount of oil.

Serves 4

Ingredients

16 large scallops, washed, pat dried
1 bunch spinach, root ends removed, washed in clean water, dried
4 shallots, ends and outer skin removed, cut into rings
2 cups shiitake mushrooms, washed, dried, root ends trimmed of any dirt, thin sliced
2 garlic cloves, peeled, finely chopped
3 tablespoons olive oil
1 tablespoon sweet butter
1/4 teaspoon cayenne (optional)
Sea salt and black pepper to taste

Directions

Cut off the spinach stems, finely chop and sauté  in a frying pan with 1 tablespoon olive, the shallots, garlic and mushrooms until lightly browned. Roughly chop the spinach leaves and add to the sauté. Cook until wilted and set aside. The vegetable sauté can be prepared ahead.

In a bowl, season 1 tablespoon olive oil with sea salt, freshly ground black pepper and cayenne (optional). Add scallops. Toss well to coat. Set aside.

Place a cast iron or carbon steel frying pan on high heat, add 1 tablespoon olive oil. Place the scallops in the hot pan. Do not crowd the scallops. If they are too close together, they will steam rather than sear.

Using tongs, turn the scallops so all sides are lightly browned. When each scallop is cooked, place on paper towels to absorb excess fat.

Reheat the sautéed spinach and place on a serving platter. Arrange the scallops on top.

Serve hot with a cold beverage.

Let's See How This Goes - Wombatgram #25

It's a common enough reaction when you meet someone new, a prospect.

Let's see how this goes...

...is a natural response and in the scheme of things.

There's just no telling what will happen. 



* Click on Wombatgram for a bigger version.

Bottoms Up, Dating Adventurers.

Methane contributes to accelerated warming in the Arctic

Above combination image featured earlier in the post Striking increase of methane in the Arctic. The images were produced by Dr. Leonid Yurganov, Senior Research Scientist, JCET, UMBC, who presented his findings at the AGU Fall Meeting 2012. The image below gives an update for 2012, showing an image with methane levels at 600 hPa.

Temperature anomalies on the inset on above image are averages for the full month November, whereas the methane levels displayed on the left are for the first ten days of November only. Using temperature maps for the same periods in such comparisons may result in even more striking simularities between methane levels and temperatures. For a more complete picture, further comparisons between November 2008 and November 2012 are added, for days 11-20 (below),

and for days 21-30 (below).

The images show that the highest methane levels show up above the water, as opposed to above land, indicating that methane is being released from the seabed across the Arctic.

Temperatures have meanwhile changed. In November 2012, there were high temperature anomalies in east Siberia. There now are very low temperatures throughout Siberia, as illustrated by the Wunderground map below, which shows high temperatures. Temperatures as low as -60.5°F (-51.4°C) were recorded in Susuman, east Siberia, both on December 13th and 17th, 2012.

The now hugely deformed polar jet stream and high levels of methane in the Arctic are only two out of numerous feedbacks that contribute to accelerate warming in the Arctic. Without rapid action, we can expect such wild swings in temperature to get even worse, making more extreme weather the new norm.

Polar jet stream appears hugely deformed

World climate zones used to be kept well apart by jet streams. On the northern hemisphere, the polar jet stream was working hard to separate the Tundra and Boreal climate zones' colder air in the north from the Temperate climate and the Subtropical climate zones' warmer air in the south.

NOAA image

The greater the difference in temperature between north and south, the faster the jet streams spin around the globe, the polar jet stream at about 60°N and the subtropical jet stream at about 30°N, as illustrated on above image. 

NOAA image

The polar jet stream used to move at speeds of up to 140 miles per hour, while following a relatively straight track that was meandering only slightly, i.e. with waves that go up and down only a little bit.

Accordingly, the Northern Temperate Zone used to experience only mild differences between summer and winter weather, rather than the extreme hot or cold temperatures that we've experienced recently.

Accelerated warming in the Arctic is decreasing the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the Northern Temperate Zone. This is causing the polar jet to slow down and become more wavy, i.e. with larger loops, as illustrated by the NASA image further below.

Polar jet stream (blue) & subtropical
jet stream (red) - NOAA image

                   Diagram of Doom, Sam Carana

This is a feedback of accelerated warming in the Arctic that reinforces itself. As the jet stream slows down and its waves become more elongated, cold air can leave the Arctic more easily and come down deep into the Northern Temperate Zone. Conversily, more warm air can at the same time move north into the Arctic.

The 'open doors' feedback further decreases the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the Northern Temperate Zone, in turn further slowing down the jet stream and making it more wavy, and thus further accelerating warming in the Arctic.

The polar jet stream can travel at speeds greater than 100 mph. Here, the fastest winds are colored red; slower winds are blue. View animated version here. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

How does this affect temperatures? If we look at the average surface temperature anomalies for the month November 2012, we see huge differences in temperatures. Areas in the East Siberian Sea and in east Siberia registered average surface temperature anomalies for November 2012 of about 10 degrees Celsius, compared with 1951-1980. At the same time, areas in Alaska and Canada have been experiencing anomalies of about -10 degrees Celsius.

This suggests a hugely deformed polar jet stream, as indicated by the contour lines on above image on the right. This is very worrying, as this is only one out of many feedbacks that come with accelerated warming in the Arctic. There are at least ten such feedbacks, as depicted in the diagram below, from the earlier post Diagram of Doom.

       Diagram of Doom, Sam Carana

One of the most frightening feedbacks is the albedo loss in the Arctic. The speed at which changes are taking place can be illustrated with the image below, from the earlier post Big changes in the Arctic within years.

The urgency to act is perhaps best expressed by means of the two images below, which can constitute a fitting end-of-year message if you like to share them further. The image below highlights that Arctic sea ice minimum volume in 2012 was only 19.3% what it was in 1979. The background image, prepared by Wipneus, shows an exponential trend projecting a 2013 minimum of only 2000 cubic km of sea ice, with a margin of error that allows Arctic sea ice to disappear altogether next year, i.e. nine months from now.

Finally, the image below highlights that, in 2012, Arctic sea ice area fell by 83.7% in just 168 days, again illustrating how fast things can eventuate. 

For more quotes, see the page at http://arcticmethane.blogspot.com/p/quotes.html

Earlier posts:
- Opening the Doorways to Doom

- Opening further Doorways to Doom

- Diagram of Doom

- How to avert an intensifying food crisis

- Albedo change in the Arctic threatens to cause runaway global warming

- Big changes in Arctic within years

Spicy Chocolate Almond Cookies

While it is true year-round, I find that baking becomes more than just the act of measuring out some flour or butter, whisking egg whites or adding sugar.  It's a way for me to show how much I care, how grateful I am for those who have touched my life.

After spotting these cookies last year, they were at the top of my baking list this year.  I changed up the recipe a bit and added just enough heat to make each bite interesting.  I hope everyone that received these loved these as much as I did, and I suspect this will be the first batch of many!

Spicy Chocolate Almond Cookies
adapted from Saveur
yield: 5-6 dozen

The spice level of your cookie depends on the chocolate you use.  Mine was chipotle cinnamon, and there was some definite heat in the finish (Taza has similar flavors).  Feel free to adjust according to your tastes- try cinnamon or orange flavored dark chocolate for a less spicy cookie.

8oz almond meal (finely ground almonds)
1 1/2c evaporated cane juice
6oz spicy semisweet chocolate, finely chopped (*see headnote)
1 1/2t ground Vietnamese cinnamon
1/2t ground cloves
2 lg egg whites, lightly beaten

In the bowl of a food processor, add almond meal, sugar and chocolate.  Pulse until chocolate is finely ground and well distributed.  Add the remaining ingredients and pulse to make a thick dough.  Wrap dough tightly and refrigerate a few hours or overnight.

When you're ready to make the cookies, take half of the dough and place it between two sheets of parchment paper.  Transfer the remaining dough back to the fridge while you roll out the first half.  Roll out the dough to ~1/8" thickness.  Using cookie cutters, cut dough to your desired shape (the size will determine how many cookies you get).  If the dough is too sticky, pop it into the freezer (still in between parchment) for 10-15min and then try cutting again.  I found the warmer my hands got, the tougher the dough was to work with, so keep that in mind when handling the dough.  Transfer cut cookies to parchment lined baking sheets, spacing them 1" apart.  Re-roll scraps and repeat, then start with the second half of the dough from the fridge.

Let the dough dry for 3 hours.  (note:  I've seen some recipes that forgo this step, so I'm not sure it's completely necessary)

Preheat the oven to 300deg.  Bake until slightly puffed, 12-15min.  Let cool completely on cookie sheets.  Store in an airtight container.

Have you been doing any holiday baking??  If so, what have you been making?

Dating Ideas

If you have found and fancy a new person, let's think about some better dating techniques. Not that you're horrid at dating, of course, but as with any skill a little forethought will improve the outcome. Here are three ideas.

Give Your Brain Time

Number one on my list is that if this truly is a new person in your life - not an acquaintance morphing into something else - it will take time for your brain to absorb all the new information they provide. Dating is only partially about physically being with the person. Processing what you see and hear is just as important.
 
Think of it this way: we sleep not for our body, but for our mind. Sleep is its sorting and filing time. As powerful as the human brain is, it turns out that connecting the internal dots takes a while. In an arena as complex as romance, where sexuality, family, morality, money and putting out the trash are involved, discovering how the newbie fits into your abstract internal life will take a few moons. Allow that to happen.

The takeaway: Time. Take some.


Allow For Upsides and Downsides

No-one's perfect. And no-one is perfect for you. Compromise is realistic. Finding the right person is about knowing what your absolute must-have's are, what the nice-to-have's are, and what doesn't matter. If you love dogs and couldn't imagine a life without them, don't contemplate someone who only likes cats. If you're happy dancing to Sinatra at home on a Saturday night, don't pretend a club-hound will suit you. Filtering is good; filtering is the essence of dating.

The takeaway: Prioritize your needs and desires.


Dates Need a Beginning and an End

Dating is an extended job interview, at least initially. Have you ever been to a thirty-minute job interview and ended up hanging out with the gang for the night? No, you haven't. So let's structure our dates in a similar fashion, with some concrete activity - even if it's simply meeting for coffee - and a specific end time, which you communicate to your date.

This will be as easy as:  

Great, let's have lunch, but I'll have to leave at 2:00 because I have an astrophysics tutorial to give.

And make sure you leave at 2:00.

Two thoughts on this. First, it tells the other person that you have a life; that finding the right person isn't the Holy Grail of your happiness. It removes any desperation factor (or the appearance of such.)

Secondly, you're giving both of you room to breathe, always a good plan.

The takeaway: Ending a date promptly might seem counter-intuitive. Give it a shot.



Bottoms Up, Dating Masterminds.

Falling In Love

Being in orbit around the earth is much like being in love.

They're similar in the following ways:


1. you feel weightless.

2. euphoria comes and goes.

3. time passes differently (sunsets and sunrises in quick succession).

4. queasiness could set in for a spell.

5. your appetite for food might disappear.

6. apart from the people with you in space, communication with others feels distant.


We like being in love because the body reacts positively. A closer examination reveals a different reality, ie:


1. you aren't weightless, you're just going too fast to hit the earth.

2. euphoria won't survive the realization you're in a tin can with no flushing toilet.

3. try sleeping with ninety minute nights and days.

4. queasiness = space sickness = vomitus = sympathy chucking.

5. sympathy chucking + blowing chunks in space = distaste for food.

6. after a while you'll kill to talk to a convenience store clerk for variety.


Still, if we ever decide to go to Mars or beyond, we'll need to figure out how to be in outer space AND in love. 



Bottoms Up, Or Down, Whichever.

Paul Beckwith at Radio Ecoshock

Paul Beckwith was recently interviewed by Ecoshock Radio, for a show that will go live to over 50 radio stations on three continents from Tuesday December 18 onward. Paul speaks about Arctic albedo collapse and our "new" climate, and more.

Click on the player below to hear the audio:



As said, the show won't air until Tuesday December 18, 2012, but an mp3 file for the earlier part of the show is already available at Radio Ecoshock.

How To Date A Supermodel

How to date a supermodel:

Step 1: Find your supermodel.

Step 2. Ask her out on a date.

Shame on you. You thought this would be tricky. She's just another woman, you know, not some kind of deity with a décolletage.

Granted, supermodels are a little thin on the ground, especially if you live in Waukegan or Wolverhampton. Likewise, you're unlikely to bump into one ordering a number one combo at McDonalds. But if you own an eighty metre-long yacht, spend mucho time in Monaco and vacation sixty-three weeks a year, the odds are better. In fact, hot babes in bikinis are probably lining up to express their affection right now. Why not go for the crème de la crème?

For one thing, supermodels always feel a little unhinged to me. You would be too if everyone within tonguing distance was tossing your salad and telling you how awesome you are. A certain unreality would come to seem normal. Unfortunately, unreality creeps towards insecurity, insecurity leads to paranoia, paranoia to drug abuse, and drug abuse to constipation, a (ahem) regular supermodel ailment I'm led to believe.

So that's the up and down of supermodel pursuit. You get to be chased by paparazzi and have your melon photographed with a famous chick; she gets to sit on your pedestal. 




Bottoms Up Bar Rafaeli fans.