River ice reveals new twist on Arctic melt

A new study led by Lance Lesack, a Simon Fraser University geographer and Faculty of Environment professor, has discovered unexpected climate-driven changes in the mighty Mackenzie River’s ice breakup. This discovery may help resolve the complex puzzle underlying why Arctic ice is disappearing more rapidly than expected.

Lance Lesack,
photo by Simon Fraser University

Lesack is the lead author on Local spring warming drives earlier river-ice breakup in a large Arctic delta. Published recently in Geophysical Research Letters, the study has co-authors at Wilfrid Laurier University, the University of Alberta and Memorial University.

Its goal was to understand how warming global temperatures and the intensifying Arctic hydrological cycle associated with them may be driving increasing water discharges and more rapid ice breakup in the Arctic’s great rivers.

But the researchers stumbled upon an unexpected phenomenon while trying to figure out why the Mackenzie River’s annual ice breakup has been shortening even though its water discharge isn’t increasing, as in Russian rivers.

Just slightly warmer springs with unexpected snowfall declines — rather than warmer winters or increasing river discharge, as previously suspected — can drive earlier-than-expected ice breakup in great Arctic rivers.

The Mackenzie exemplifies this unexpected phenomenon. The researchers discovered this by accessing records dating back to 1958 of the river’s water levels, snow depths, air temperatures and times of ice breakup.

This finding is significant, as Arctic snow and ice systems are important climate-system components that affect the Earth’s ability to reflect solar radiation.

Mackenzie delta river, before (top) and after
(bottom, one day later) onset of dynamic ice
breakup in the central Mackenzie's delta middle
channel. Photos by Simon Fraser University.

“Our surprising finding was that spring temperatures, the period when river-ice melt occurs, had warmed by only 3.2 degrees Celsius. Yet this small change was responsible for more than 80 per cent of the variation in the earlier ice breakups, whereas winter temperatures had warmed by 5.3 degrees but explained little of this variation,” says Lesack.

“This is a strong response in ice breakup for a relatively modest degree of warming, but further investigation showed that by winter’s end snow depths had also declined by one third over this period. The lesser snow depths mean less solar energy is needed to drive ice breakup.”

Lesack says this is the first field-based study to uncover an important effect of reduced winter snowfall and warmer springs in the Arctic — earlier-than-expected, climate-change-related ice breakup.

“The polar regions have a disproportionate effect on planetary reflectivity because so much of these regions consist of ice and snow,” says Lesack. “Most of the planetary sea ice is in the Arctic and the Arctic landmass is also seasonally covered by extensive snow. If such ice and snow change significantly, this will affect the global climate system and would be something to worry about.”

Lesack hopes this study’s findings motivate Canadian government agencies to reconsider their moves towards reducing or eliminating ground-based monitoring programs that measure important environmental variables.

There are few long-term, ground-based snow depth records from the Arctic. This study’s findings were based on such records at Inuvik dating back to 1958. They significantly pre-dated remote sensing records that extend back only to 1980. Without this longer view into the past, this study’s co-authors would still be in the dark about the more rapid than expected Arctic melt and planetary heat-up happening.



Backgrounder:

Quotes by Lance Lesack

• “Our work suggests that the effects of reduced winter snowfall should be further investigated in other aspects of the changing Arctic, such as the surprisingly rapid reduction in sea-ice cover and the unexpected collapses of several Canadian ice shelves.” 
• “Our findings should also be of interest to people and industries that exist in the Arctic, where changes in the growth and decay of rivers, lakes or sea-ice may affect their daily lives. Ice roads and shipping over them depend on knowing when the ice roads can be travelled upon or when ferry crossings can be operated during open water.”

Facts:

• Canada’s Mackenzie and several Russian rivers are among the Arctic’s gigantic waterways. The hydrological cycle is the cycling of water from the oceans to the atmosphere and back down to the continents, which the rivers then drain back to the ocean. Planetary warming hastens this cycle, which should lead to higher river discharge, more rapid river ice breakup, and ultimately more extreme weather patterns. 
• About a third of the size of Switzerland and reaching 200 kilometres inland, the Mackenzie River delta sits at the end of Canada’s longest river and sustains 45,000 lakes. 
• The Mackenzie River delta and other Arctic deltas are considered biological hotspots because their sites have much higher biological productivity and biodiversity than their surrounding Arctic environment. Their peak river levels enhance marine ecosystems by flushing nutrients and organic matter from vast deltas that sit at freshwater-ocean water interfaces into the ocean. 
• In 2007 SFU geographer Lance Lesack co-authored a study that found rising water levels in the Mackenzie River delta, induced by climate-related sea-level rise, were three times higher than predicted. The authors worried that the faster-than-expected changes could have important impacts on the region’s human and animal life, and industry.

Press release by Simon Fraser University

http://www.sfu.ca/pamr/media-releases/2014/river-ice-reveals-new-twist-on-arctic-melt.html

Local spring warming drives earlier river-ice breakup in a large Arctic delta
Lance F. W. Lesack, Philip Marsh, Faye E. Hicks and Donald L. Forbes

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058761/abstract

Like a giant elevator to the stratosphere

Recent research results show that an atmospheric hole over the tropical West Pacific is reinforcing ozone depletion in the polar regions and could have a significant influence on the climate of the Earth.

Potsdam, 3 April 2014. An international team of researchers headed by Potsdam scientist Dr. Markus Rex from the Alfred Wegener Institute has discovered a previously unknown atmospheric phenomenon over the South Seas. Over the tropical West Pacific there is a natural, invisible hole extending over several thousand kilometres in a layer that prevents transport of most of the natural and manmade substances into the stratosphere by virtue of its chemical composition. Like in a giant elevator, many chemical compounds emitted at the ground pass thus unfiltered through this so-called “detergent layer” of the atmosphere. Scientists call it the “OH shield”. The newly discovered phenomenon over the South Seas boosts ozone depletion in the polar regions and could have a significant influence on the future climate of the Earth – also because of rising air pollution in South East Asia.

In tropical thunderstorms over the West Pacific air masses and
the chemical substances they contain are quickly hurled upward
to the edge of the stratosphere. If there are sufficient OH
molecules in the atmosphere, the air is extensively cleaned by
chemical transformation processes. Where OH concentrations are
low, such as those now found in large sections of the tropical
West Pacific, the cleaning capacity of the atmosphere is reduced.
Photo: Markus Rex, Alfred Wegener Institute

At first Dr. Markus Rex suspected a series of flawed measurements. In October 2009 the atmospheric physicist from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) was on board the German research vessel “Sonne” to measure trace substances in the atmosphere in the tropical West Pacific.

Tried and tested a thousand times over, the ozone probes he sent up into the tropical sky with a research balloon every 400 kilometres reported – nothing.

Or to be more accurate: almost nothing. The ozone concentrations in his measurements remained nearly constantly below the detection limit of approx. 10 ppbv* in the entire vertical range from the surface of the Earth to an altitude of around 15 kilometres. Normally ozone concentrations in this part of the atmosphere are three to ten times higher.

Although low values at an altitude of around 15 kilometres were known from earlier measurements in the peripheral area of the tropical West Pacific, the complete absence of ozone at all heights was surprising. However, after a short period of doubt and various tests of the instruments it dawned on the worldwide recognised ozone specialist that he might be onto a phenomenon yet unknown to science. A few research years later and after the involvement of other colleagues came confirmation: Markus Rex and his team on board the “Sonne” had tracked down a giant natural hole over the tropical South Seas, situated in a special layer of the lower atmosphere known as the “OH shield”. The research results on the newly discovered OH minimum will be published soon in the journal “Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics”, with the Institute of Environmental Physics of the University of Bremen and other international research institutions as partners.

Nearly all chemical substances produced by people, animals,
plants, algae or microorganisms on the ground or in the oceans
react quickly with OH and break down in this process. During this
chemical self-cleaning process substances that are not easily
water-soluble are transformed into water-soluble products and
then washed out by precipitation. Through this mechanism OH
molecules remove most substances from the atmosphere.
The OH molecule is therefore also called the detergent of the
atmosphere. Only extremely long-lived chemical compounds,
such as methane or CFCs, also known as "ozone killers", can
rise through the OH shield into the stratosphere.
Graphics: Markus Rex, Alfred Wegener Institute

“Even though the sky appears to be an extensively uniform space for most people, it is composed of chemically and physically very different layers,” Markus Rex explains the complex makeup of the atmosphere.

The air layers near the ground contain hundreds or even thousands of chemical compounds. This is why winter and spring, mountains and sea, city and forests all have a distinct smell. The great majority of these substances are broken down into water-soluble compounds in the lower kilometres of the atmosphere and are subsequently washed out by rain.

Since these processes require the presence of a certain chemical substance, the so called hydroxyl (=OH) radical, this part of the atmosphere is called the “OH shield”. It acts like a huge atmospheric washing machine in which OH is the detergent.

The OH shield is part of the troposphere, as the lower part of the atmosphere is called. “Only a few, extremely long-lived compounds manage to make their way through the OH shield,” says Rex, “then they also get through the tropopause and enter the stratosphere.” Tropopause refers to the boundary layer between the troposphere and the next atmospheric layer above it, the stratosphere. Particularly substances that enter the stratosphere unfold a global impact. The reason for this is that once they have reached the stratosphere, their degradation products remain up there for many years and spread over the entire globe.

Extremely long-lived chemical compounds find their way to the stratosphere, even where the OH shield is intact. These include methane, nitrous oxide (“laughing gas”), halons, methyl bromide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are notorious as “ozone killers” because they play a major role in ozone depletion in the polar regions.

Location and extent of low ozone concentrations and thus
of the OH hole over the West Pacific. Fig. (a) shows the
region of origin of the air in the stratosphere, Fig. (b) ozone
sonde measurements (dots) and satellite measurements
(coloured map) of the total amount of ozone in the
tropospheric column of air and Fig. (c) the total amount of
OH in the tropospheric column of air calculated with a model.
Graphics: Markus Rex, Alfred Wegener Institute.

After many years of research scientists now understand the complicated process of stratospheric ozone depletion very well.

“Nevertheless measured ozone depletion rates were often quite a bit larger than theoretically calculated in our models,” Markus Rex points out a long unsolved problem of atmospheric research.

“Through the discovery of the OH hole over the tropical West Pacific we have now presumably made a contribution to solving this puzzle.”

And at the same time discovered a phenomenon that raises a number of new questions for climate policy.

Researchers are now tackling these questions in a new research project funded by the EU with around 9 million euros, i.e. “StratoClim”, which is coordinated by the Alfred Wegener Institute. Within this project a new monitoring station will be established in the tropical Westpacific, together with the Institute of Environmental Physics at the University of Bremen.

“We have to realise,” reminds the Potsdam atmospheric physicist, “that chemical compounds which enter the stratosphere always have a global impact.” Thanks to the OH hole that the researchers discovered over the tropical Pacific, greater amounts of brominated hydrocarbons can reach the stratosphere than in other parts of the world. Although their ascent takes place over the tropical West Pacific, these compounds amplify ozone depletion in the polar regions. Since scientists identified this phenomenon and took it into account in the modelling of stratospheric ozone depletion, their models have corresponded excellently with the actually measured data.

However, it is not only brominated hydrocarbons that enter the stratosphere over the tropical West Pacific. “You can imagine this region as a giant elevator to the stratosphere,” states Markus Rex using an apt comparison. Other substances, too, rise here to a yet unknown extent while they are intercepted to a larger extent in the OH shield elsewhere on the globe. One example is sulphur dioxide, which has a significant impact on the climate.

Sulphur particles in the stratosphere reflect sunlight and therefore act antagonistically to atmospheric greenhouse gases like CO2, which capture the heat of the sun on the Earth. To put it simply, whereas greenhouse gases in the atmosphere heat the globe, sulphur particles in the stratosphere have a cooling effect. “South East Asia is developing rapidly in economic terms,” Markus Rex explains a problem given little attention to date. “Contrary to most industrial nations, however, little has been invested in filter technology up to now. That is why sulphur dioxide emissions are increasing substantially in this region at present.”

This is how air reaches the stratosphere. Through the rapid
upward transport in tropical thunderstorms they reach an area
of slow large-scale ascent and rise from there through the
tropopause into the stratosphere over the course of weeks.
This process is most pronounced during northern hemispheric
winter. Model calculations show that, during this season, this
process mainly takes place over the tropical West Pacific. Due
to the formation of cirrus (= ice) clouds in the extremely cold
tropical tropopause, a large portion of the water-soluble
chemical substances is removed from the air and cannot reach
the stratosphere. OH molecules transform water-insoluble into
water-soluble compounds. Hence, if the concentration of OH
molecules along the dotted transport pathways shown above
is high only few chemical compounds make it into the
stratosphere. Conversely, the lower the OH concentration is
along the transport pathways, the more chemical
compounds enter the stratosphere.
Graphics: Yves Nowak, Alfred Wegener Institute.

If one takes into account that sulphur dioxide may also reach the stratosphere via the OH hole over the tropical West Pacific, it quickly becomes obvious that the atmospheric elevator over the South Seas not only boosts ozone depletion, but may influence the climate of the entire Earth. In fact, the aerosol layer in the stratosphere, which is also composed of sulphur particles, seems to have become thicker in recent years. Researchers do not know yet whether there is a connection here.

But wouldn’t it be a stroke of luck if air pollutants from South East Asia were able to mitigate climate warming? “By no means,” Markus Rex vigorously shakes his head. “The OH hole over the South Seas is above all further evidence of how complex climate processes are. And we are still a long way off from being in a position to assess the consequences of increased sulphur input into the stratosphere. Therefore, we should make every effort to understand the processes in the atmosphere as best we can and avoid any form of conscious or unconscious manipulation that would have an unknown outcome.”

Background:

Why is there an OH hole over the West Pacific?
The air in the tropical West Pacific is extremely clean. Air masses in this area were transported across the expanse of the huge Pacific with the trade winds and for a long time no longer had contact with forests or other land ecosystems that produce innumerable short-lived hydrocarbons and release them into the air. Under these clean air conditions OH is formed from ozone through chemical transformation to a great degree. If there is hardly any ozone in the lower atmosphere (= troposphere), as is the case in the West Pacific, only little OH can be formed. The result is an OH hole.

The graph shows ozone profiles measured in three different
marine regions: the tropical Atlantic, the tropical West Pacific
and the West Pacific outside the tropics. The red curve clearly
shows that ozone is consistently very low up to an altitude of
15 kilometres over the tropical West Pacific. In the other
regions the ozone concentrations are in a range typical
for the troposphere.
Graphics: Markus Rex, Alfred Wegener Institute

Ozone, in turn, forms in the lower atmosphere only if there are sufficient nitrogen oxides there. Large amounts of nitrogen oxide compounds are produced in particular by intensive lightning over land.

However, the air masses in the tropical West Pacific were not exposed to any continental tropical storms for a very long time during their transport across the giant ocean. And the lightning activity in storms over the ocean is relatively small. At the same time the lifetime of atmospheric ozone is short due to the exceptionally warm and moist conditions in the tropical West Pacific. In this South Sea region the surface temperatures of the ocean are higher than anywhere else on our planet, which makes the air not only quite warm, but also quite moist.

The ozone is thus quickly lost, especially directly above the water. And due to the lack of nitrogen oxide compounds little ozone is subsequently formed. Rapid vertical mixing in the convection areas that exist everywhere over the warm ocean and in which the warm air rises takes care of the rest. Finally, there is no more ozone in the entire column of air in the troposphere. And without ozone (see above) the formation of OH is suppressed.

What impact does the OH hole over the West Pacific have?

The illustration shows the average lifetime of sulphur dioxide
and some brominated hydrocarbons for normal conditions
over the tropical Atlantic and for conditions of reduced
OH-concentrations over the tropical West Pacific.
Graphics: Markus Rex, Alfred Wegener Institute

The OH molecule is also called the detergent of the atmosphere. Nearly all of the thousands of different chemical substances produced by people, animals, plants, fungi, algae or microorganisms on the ground or in the oceans react quickly with OH and break down in this process. Therefore, virtually none of these substances rises into the stratosphere. In the area of the OH hole, however, a larger portion of this varied chemical mix can enter the stratosphere.

And local emissions may unfold a global impact, especially if they make it to the stratosphere. There they spread globally and can influence the composition of the air for many years – with far-reaching consequences for ozone chemistry, aerosol formation and climate.

Why wasn’t the OH hole discovered earlier?
The tropical West Pacific is one of the most remote regions on our planet. That is why extensive measurements of the air composition have yet to take place in this area. There is also a considerable gap in the otherwise dense network of global ozone measurement stations here. Even in the past measurements from the peripheral sections of the now investigated region showed minimal ozone values in the area of the upper troposphere, but not the consistently low values that have now been found across the entire depth of the troposphere. The newly discovered phenomenon reveals itself in its full scope only through the measurements that were conducted to such an extensive degree for the first time and was thus not able to be grasped at all previously.

*One part of ozone per billion by volume (ppbv) means there is one ozone molecule for every billion air molecules.



Press release from the Alfred Wegener Institute, which conducts research in the Arctic, Antarctic and oceans of the high and mid-latitudes. It coordinates polar research in Germany and provides major infrastructure to the international scientific community, such as the research icebreaker Polarstern and stations in the Arctic and Antarctica. The Alfred Wegener Institute is one of the 18 research centres of the Helmholtz Association, the largest scientific organisation in Germany.

Escalating extreme weather events to hammer humanity

By Paul Beckwith

Extreme weather events are rocketing upwards in their frequency of occurrence, intensity, and duration and are impacting new regions that are unprepared. These events, such as torrential rains, are causing floods and damaging crops and infrastructure like roads, rail, pipelines, and buildings. Cities, states, and entire countries are being battered and inundated resulting in disruption to many peoples lives as well as enormous economic losses. As bad as this is, it is going to get much worse by at least 10 to 20 times. Why?

Greenhouse gas emissions from humans have changed the chemistry of the atmosphere. The optical absorption of infrared heat has increased in the atmosphere which raises temperature, and thus water vapor content, and therefore fuels more intense storms. The jet streams that guide these storms are slower and wavier and more fractured and cause our weather gyrations and weird behavior. Areas far north can get very warm, while areas far south can get very cold. Some areas get persistent drought. Then, the pattern can flip. The jet streams are much wavier in the north-south direction since the Arctic temperatures have warmed 5 to 8 times faster than the global average. This reduces the temperature difference between the Arctic and equator and basic physics forces the jets to slow and get wavier.

Why is the Arctic warming greatly amplified? The region is darkening and thus absorbing more sunlight, since the land-based snow cover in spring and the Arctic sea ice cover volume are both declining exponentially. The white snow and ice is being replaced by dark surfaces like the ocean and the tundra. The most detailed computer model on sea ice decline is a U.S. Naval Graduate School model, and it shows the sea ice cover could be gone by late summer in 2016. If this happens, the Arctic warming will rocket upwards, the jets will distort much more, and the extreme weather events will rocket upwards in frequency, amplitude, and duration and civilization will be hammered.

Paul Beckwith

Paul Beckwith is part-time professor with the laboratory for paleoclimatology and climatology, department of geography, University of Ottawa. Paul teaches climatology/meteorology and does PhD research on 'Abrupt climate change in the past and present'. Paul holds an M.Sc. in laser physics and a B.Eng. in engineering physics and reached the rank of chess master in a previous life. Below are Paul's earlier posts at the Arctic-news blog.

Paul Beckwith with sign (arrows highlighted by 

Sam Carana, from earlier post)

Below, a recent video in which Paul Beckwith discusses how a weaker Jet Stream lets warmer air move from lower latitudes into the Arctic (feedback #10).

From December, 2013 until early April, 2014 there have been persistent and very large temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere (+20 C = +36 F in the Arctic, -20 C = -36 F in vast parts of the US and Canada). I claim that this represents a previously unrecognized large positive feedback acting to homogenize the temperature in the northern hemisphere.

Earlier posts by Paul Beckwith

- Abrupt Climate Change

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/02/abrupt-climate-change-by-paul-beckwith.html

- Our New Climate and Weather - part 2

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/01/our-new-climate-and-weather-part-2.html

- Our New Climate and Weather

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/01/our-new-climate-and-weather.html

- Are Alberta’s Tar Sands prepared for a torrential rain event?

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/are-albertas-tar-sands-prepared-for-a-torrential-rain-event.html

- Stop All New Fossil Fuel Megaprojects

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/stop-all-new-fossil-fuel-megaprojects.html

- Toward Genuinely Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/toward-genuinely-improved-discussions-of-methane-and-climate.html

- The Social Tipping Point

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-social-tipping-point.html

- Arctic Cyclone July 2013

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/arctic-cyclone-july-2013.html

- Arctic Ocean Events - Videos by Paul Beckwith

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/arctic-ocean-events-videos-by-paul-beckwith.html

- Climate change fighting town savaged by runaway oil train

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/climate-change-fighting-town-savaged-by-runaway-oil-train.html

- Extreme weather becomes the norm - what can you do?

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/06/extreme-weather-becomes-the-norm-what-can-you-do.html

- Thin Spots developing in Arctic Sea Ice

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/06/thin-spots-developing-in-arctic-sea-ice.html

- The Tornado Connection to Climate Change

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-tornado-connection-to-climate-change.html

- Anthropogenic Arctic Volcano can calm climate

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/01/anthropogenic-arctic-volcano-can-calm-climate.html

- Hold on folks… the times they are a-changin’

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/11/hold-on-folks-the-times-they-are-changin.html

- Hurricane Sandy moving inland

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-moving-inland.html

- Open Letter to Canadian MPs

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/open-letter-to-canadian-mps.html

- State of Climate Change October 2012

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/state-of-climate-change-october-2012.html

- Is death by lead worse than death by climate? No.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/is-death-by-lead-worse-than-death-by-climate-no.html

- You are now entering the nonlinearity zone…

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/you-are-now-entering-the-nonlinearity-zone.html

- Vanishing Arctic sea ice is rapidly changing global climate

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/vanishing-arctic-sea-ice-is-rapidly-changing-global-climate.html

- Storm enters Arctic region

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/storm-enters-arctic-region.html

- Update on September Arctic cyclone

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/update-on-september-arctic-cyclone.html

- Arctic cyclone warning for September 7

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/arctic-cyclone-warning-for-september-7.html

- Paul Beckwith on ice speed and drift - update 1

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/paul-beckwith-on-ice-speed-and-drift-update-1.html

- Paul Beckwith on ice speed and drift

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/paul-beckwith-on-ice-speed-and-drift.html

- Another Arctic Cyclone brewing

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/another-arctic-cyclone-brewing.html

- Sea ice in the Arctic - Shaken and stirred (by a powerful cyclone)

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/sea-ice-in-the-arctic.html

- How to part ways with a climate denier that has incredible stamina...

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/how-to-part-ways-with-a-climate-denier.html

Post by Sam Carana.

Earthquakes in the Arctic Ocean

Earthquakes in the Arctic Ocean

indications of immiment catastrophic methane eruptions?

1. Methane over Greenland

The image below shows high methane concentrations over Greenland and over the Arctic Ocean.

[ Yellow areas indicate methane readings of 1950 ppb and higher - click on image to enlarge ]

The large yellow areas on this image indicate that the methane entered the atmosphere there. This is especially likely when such large yellow areas keep appearing in the same area over a few days. In the case of the large yellow areas around Novaya Zemlya, the methane is likely to have travelled there underneath the sea ice, from the Gakkel Ridge, to enter the atmosphere where the sea ice was thin or fractured enough for the methane to pass through, as discussed in earlier posts.

As described in the post High methane readings over Greenland, huge temperature swings can hit areas over Greenland over the course of a few days. Temperature anomalies may go down as low as as -20°C one day, then climb as high as 20°C a few days laters, to hit temperature anomalies as low as -20°C again some days later.

This could explain the methane over Greenland. Methane is present in the Greenland ice sheet in the form of hydrates and free gas. These huge temperature swings are causing the ice to expand and contract, thus causing difference in pressure as well as temperature. The combined shock of wild pressure and temperature swings is causing movement and fractures in the ice, and this enables methane to rise to the surface and enter the atmosphere.

To further illustrate this, the image below shows recent temperature anomaly forecasts over Greenland.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

2. What is causing these extreme weather events?

Frigid cold weather in the U.S., torrential rain and flooding in the U.K., and wild temperature swings over Greenland. What is causing these extreme weather events? 

As discussed in many previous posts, the Arctic has become warmer than it used to be and temperatures in the Arctic are rising several times faster than global temperatures. This decreases the temperature difference between the areas to the north and to the south of the Jet Stream, which in turn decreases the speed at which the Jet Stream circumnavigates the globe, making the Jet Stream more wavier and increasing opportunities for cold air to descend from the Arctic and for warm air to enter the Arctic.

3. Did temperature swings also trigger earthquakes?

[ click on image to enlarge ]

These wild temperature swings may be causing even further damage, on top of the methane eruptions from the heights of Greenland. Look at the above map, showing earthquakes that hit the Arctic in March 2014.

Topographic map of Greenland
without the Greenland Ice Sheet.

BTW, above map doesn't show all earthquakes that occured in the Arctic Ocean in March 2014. An earthquake with a magnitude of 4.5 on the Richter scale hit the Gakkel Ridge on March 6, 2014.

Importantly, above map shows a number of earthquakes that occurred far away from faultlines, including a M4.6 earthquake that hit Baffin Bay and a M4.5 earthquake that hit the Labrador Sea. These earthquakes are unlikely to have resulted from movement in tectonic plates. Instead, temperature swings over Greenland may have triggered these events, by causing a succession of compression and expansion swings of the Greenland ice mass, which in turn caused pressure changes that were felt in the crust surrounding the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Glaciers could be the key to make this happen. Glaciers typically move smoothly and gradually. It could be, however, that such wide temperature swings are causing glaciers to come to a halt, temporarily, causing pressure to build up over a day or so, to then suddenly start moving again with a shock. Intense cold can literally freeze a glacier in its track, to be shocked into moving again as temperatures rise abruptly by 40°C or so. This can send shockwaves through the ice sheet into the crust and trigger earthquakes in areas prone to destabilization. The same mechanism could explain the high methane concentrations over the heights of Greenland and Antarctica.

Ominously, patterns of earthquakes can be indicators of bigger earthquakes yet to come.

4. Situation looks set to get a lot worse

This situation looks set to get a lot worse. Extreme weather events and wild temperature swings look set to become more likely to occur and hit Greenland with ever greater ferocity. Earthquakes could reveberate around the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane held in the form of free gas and hydrates in sediments underneath the Arctic Ocean.

Meanwhile, as pollution clouds from North America move (due to the Coriolis Effect) over the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf Stream continues to warm up and carry warmer water into the Arctic Ocean, further increasing the likelihood of methane eruptions from the Arctic seafloor.

The above image shows the Gulf Stream off the coast of North America, while the image below shows how the Gulf Stream continues, carrying warmer water through the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean.

Feedbacks, such as the demise of the Arctic's snow and ice cover, further contribute to speed up the unfolding catastrophe. Methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have become especially noticable over the past half year. The big danger is that this will develop into runaway global warming, as discussed in the recent post Feedbacks in the Arctic.

Furthermore, as-yet-unknown feedbacks may start to kick in. As an example, submarine earthquakes and volcanos could add nutrients into the water that feed methane-producing (methanogenic) microbes. A recent study found that expansion of such microbes could have played a large role in the end-Permian extinction, and that it was catalyzed by increased availability of nickel associated with volcanism. Authors support their hypothesis with an analysis of carbon isotopic changes leading up to the extinction, phylogenetic analysis of methanogenic archaea, and measurements of nickel concentrations in South China sediments.

5. Need for comprehensive and effective action

The situation calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.





Related

- Methane Release caused by Earthquakes
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/methane-release-caused-by-earthquakes.html

- Seismic activity
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-activity.html

- Climate Plan
http://climateplan.blogspot.com

Post by Sam Carana.

Using Credit Cards to Send You Around the World

You might ask, why is a food blogger writing about credit cards? The answer is pretty simple. I love to eat. I love to travel. I love to eat when I travel and I especially love getting to travel and eat for free. When I was a kid, my mom frequented stores that gave her S&H Green Stamps with each purchase. She dutifully pasted the stamps in a book. When the books were filled, she could redeem them for products. A toaster. Hair products. All sorts of things. With the wide adoption of credit cards, this simple idea grew exponentially into a billion dollar business. I couldn't be happier.

All but one of the photographs in the article are from a month long trip to Switzerland to the Lake Geneva Region, Interlaken in the middle of the country and Lugano in the Italian speaking south.

With the summer travel season approaching, now is a good time to look through the credit cards in your wallet. Every week unsolicited credit card offers arrive in the mail.  I don't need any more credit cards, but it's good to check out the offers. Are the terms as good as the credit card offers you're receiving in the mail?  Maybe it's time to switch.

NOT ALL CREDIT CARDS ARE CREATED EQUAL
Not all credit cards have benefits. Many are just "credit" cards.  In the simplest terms, with these cards, the bank advances you money. You are expected to repay what you borrowed at the end of the month. If you don't repay all the money you borrowed, you pay interest on the balance. That's pretty straight forward.

But since there are credit cards out there that not only loan you money but also give you a goodie bag of benefits, why not use those cards?  Banks want your business. That means you can have credit and goodies too.  And that is a very good thing.

Over the last month, I received offers from Barclay, Citi, American Express, Bank of America and Chase asking me to apply for one of their credit cards. The banks will pay me to use their money.

They'll pay me in the sense that they are offering cash back
or miles to be used to buy airline tickets, hotel stays and other purchases. The devil's bargain is simple. All I have to do is use my credit card as often as possible. Merchants pay the bank when I use my credit card. The bank hopes I will spend a lot of money, carry an outstanding balance and occasionally miss a due date so I have to pay late fees. My plan is to pay my monthly balances on time so I get the miles without having to pay interest or fees.

GETTING A CREDIT CARD IS LIKE GETTING MARRIED
As in any marriage, it is important to get to know your prospective mate before you tie the knot. The bank's agreement is a prenup. You should read those terms very carefully.

1. BENEFITS: Carefully read the terms of the agreement. Since there are many different types of benefit programs, compare and evaluate which credit cards give you what you need. Some cards give money back bonuses. Others focus on miles that can be converted into free airline travel while some are designed for travelers who want free hotel nights.  For sites that compare different credit card offers, see the list at the end of the article.

I use credit cards to accumulate miles toward airline travel, so I want a credit card that accrues miles on a 1:1 basis, or better.  Which means when I spend $1.00, I get 1 mile or point credited to my account.  One of our Master Card accounts did not charge us an annual fee. The miles were accumulated on the basis of 2:1. $2.00 spent for 1 mile credited. When our use of the card was low, that made sense, but in time we used the card more and more, so the advantage of no annual fee was not worth the miles we lost.

With some cards you accrue miles on a basis of 1:2 ($1.00 spent for 2 miles credited). That is the case with some Bank of America plans when the card is used to purchase groceries and gasoline products. With some American Airlines plans, purchasing American's products will add more bonus points to your account. Some plans give cash back instead of miles. Other plans sweeten the pot by crediting back a percentage of the miles you used to purchase airline tickets, as does American Airlines with its more expensive cards. Spend 25,000 miles to purchase a round trip ticket and the card credits 5,000 miles to your account.

Notice how many times I have to say "some plans." It's worth your while to read the fine print and pick the best card for you.

2. ANNUAL FEE: Typically, when you sign up for a credit card, the first year's fee is waived. This isn't always true, but it might be the case, so check. Annual fees typically range between $50.00  and $100.00. High end cards charge high annual fees, as much as $450.00 or more, but in return the benefits are highly prized by travelers--entry into airport lounges, free baggage allowance, discounted prices on airline products, bonus points, special offers, no foreign transaction fees, concierge services and much more.

3. AIRLINE VS BANK CARDS: Many credit cards are affiliated with specific airlines. Use a VISA card issued by American Airlines and the miles accrue for flights on American Airlines. There are many cards which accumulate points and miles that can be used on any airline. Those cards proudly tout their non-affiliation as an advantage because you can pick and choose airlines for the best deals. Personally, I have not used this type of card. I have cards which are tied to airlines: American, Southwest and United. These are airlines that fly where I tend to travel. As with any card, carefully read the fine print to see if your purchasing and travel needs are best served by a particular card's agreement.

4. SIGNING BONUSES: Many credit cards--well actually most these days in the push to sign up more customers--offer a signing bonus. The annual fee may be waived for the first year as part of the signing bonus. Typically a new user is also credited miles as a bonus. The number of miles can be an insignificant 10,000 miles or a very meaningful 75,000 miles.

Accruing those miles to your mileage account is often linked to your spending a certain amount during a specified period of time, say $3,000.00 spent in the first three months after the card is activated. Once you spend the $3,000.00, the bonus miles will be credited to your account.

Usually the best deals go to consumers who have the best credit history and who also have good paying, long term employment. This may strike some as unfair--why should one person get more than another person--but this issue is important. When you use your credit card, the bank has money you want to use. The bank wants guarantees that they will get their money back. Good credit history and current employment tell them you are more likely to give them back their money when asked, so they'll be nicer to you. Which brings up the next issue.

5. INTEREST RATES: What is APR? APR is an abbreviation for Annual Percentage Rate. That's the rate the bank will charge you for keeping their money longer than one month (or 28 days or 27 days or 30 days, depending on their definitions -- always remember to read the fine print because you may encounter a card that begins charging interest ON THE DAY YOU MAKE THE PURCHASE--I have only seen one card with that feature).

If you pay your credit card balances before the DUE DATE. You have won the jackpot. The bank gave you their money. You spent it. But you paid it back before the due date, so the bank gets no money from you. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

Which means you don't care what the APR is because you are the smartest person on the planet.  Even though the bank didn't get any money from you for all those transactions during the month, the businesses who sold you the goods and services did have to the pay the bank. So the credit card companies are making money, just not from you.

If you don't pay all of the credit card balance on time, then you will pay for the money the bank let you use.  In which case, the APR is really really important. And you should look carefully at how much interest you will pay and all the other terms that come with keeping the bank's money past that first month.

As part of the signing bonus for some cards, you are allowed without fee to transfer existing credit card balances from other credit cards. This can be a very handy way of starting over again, especially if you have racked up fees, which is the next topic to discuss.

6. MINIMUM MONTHLY PAYMENT: Minimum monthly payment is a really scary idea. The bank helpfully tells you the smallest amount you need to pay on the monthly bill. The problem is that paying the minimum amount maximizes the bank's profits. It might seem really cool and friendly to only pay $32.18 on a monthly balance of $3517.23, but the bank is hoping you'll take the easy way out, pay the minimum legally required so that they can levy their very exorbitant APR.

7. FEES: Late fees and every other fee you are liable for if you don't pay all of your monthly bill each billing cycle on time and in full are the Devil's wager you make for using credit cards. Miss a due date and you will be hit with a fee in addition to the APR costs. And those fees will themselves accrue APR charges if you don't pay off all of the outstanding balance. When people talk about slipping into a downward spiral of debt because of credit card use, this is how it happens. Many banks make their profits on the frailties of the human condition. Late fees are an important profit center. So that's the bad news.

8. CREDIT CARDS PROTECT YOU FROM FRAUD: The good news is using a credit card protects you from fraud. Buy a faulty product that the seller won't repair or replace, the credit card company will go to bat for you and challenge the seller. Someone hacks your account and uses your credit card to take a trip to Rio and stay in a 5-Star hotel for ten days. Not your problem. If you didn't use the card, you are not liable for the charges. When you use a debit card, things get complicated because the money comes directly out of YOUR account, not the bank's. With a credit card, the thief sticks a straw into the BANK's account, not yours. That is the law and the law, in this regard, favors the consumer and that is YOU.

9. WEB SITES THAT EVALUATE CREDIT CARDS: There are many more benefits and limitations that are found in credit card offers. Since they are specific to different credit cards, I've listed below some very good analyses that compare credit cards. Here are several I like.

Tasha Lockyer looks at the "Top Seven Credit Card Offers." Her analysis focuses on consumers who have the best credit. The better your credit, the better the deal.

The editors at NextAdvisor list the best credit cards, broken down by features: lowest APR, best for travel, best transfer rates from another card, best rewards, best cash back, best student, best business and best card to rebuild your credit.

Value Penguin evaluates financial opportunities--health insurance, auto insurance, mortgage rates and credit cards. They throw a very wide net, comparing thirty-three credit cards across eleven value points including annual fee, APR, signing bonus and valuations of each card based on how many points or miles you receive relative to the cost of the card (which would include the annual fee). I know that sounds like a lot of comparison points, but Value Penguin has a very cool graphic that creates a visual comparison to help guide you through the advantages of each card.

Ben Schlappig writes a blog and subscription email called One Mile at a Time  with a monthly evaluation of the ten best credit card deals. His March evaluation is posted now. Because he updates his lists every month, I find it well worth my while to subscribe to his emails, which detail his personal experiences traveling around the world.

Bacon Broccoli

Ever get in a rut where certain foods just don't sound appetizing?  That was broccoli for me this fall/early winter.  Until I made this dish, which quickly become a weekly staple and go-to dish for sharing with friends.

Bacon Broccoli
adapted from Anna
serves 2-4

I don't measure anymore and the recipe is pretty forgiving, so if it looks like you need more bacon, use it (the thickness of slices can be deceiving).  Mix it up with cauliflower or brussels sprouts instead of broccoli.  Use pecans or pumpkin/sunflower seeds instead of walnuts.

8c broccoli florets
2-3T chopped walnuts
1 1/2t garlic powder
1/4t fine sea salt
~3T olive oil
3-4 slices nitrate-free bacon

Preheat oven to 400deg.

In a large bowl, combine broccoli, walnuts, garlic powder and salt.  Pour in olive oil and toss, adding enough oil so that the broccoli isn't dry.  Transfer to a cookie sheet (or two) so it's in a single layer.

Using scissors, cut bacon into ~1/2" slices and sprinkle over broccoli.  Bake, 30-40min, stirring every 15min.  Transfer to a dish and serve.

What's your favorite way to enjoy broccoli?

Feedbacks in the Arctic

This is more a climate report than a weather report; yet, the extreme weather that did hit the U.K. recently and that is forecast to hit large parts of North America next week may make more people realize that action is needed now. So, please share!

At the moment, a large part of Russia is experiencing temperature anomalies at the highest end of the scale, i.e. more than 36°F (20°C) warmer than average past records.

Above image shows the situation as at March 20, 2014. The image below is a forecast for March 22, 2014.

Over the past year, average temperatures over the Arctic Ocean have been much higher than they used to be, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.

Warming in the Arctic is accelerating, in part due to a number of feedbacks such as extreme weather. Temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are expected to rise even further next week. The Arctic as a whole is expected to reach average anomalies as high as 5.3°C next week, while many areas over the Arctic Ocean are expected to be hit by even higher anomalies, as the image below shows.

 [ click on image to enlarge ]

Above image also shows that, at the same time, very low temperatures - with anomalies at the low end of the scale - are expected to hit a large part of North America. The image below shows what temperatures can be expected on March 26, 2014, 12:00 UTC.

As above image illustrates, temperatures over a large part of North America can be expected to be hardly higher than temperatures over the Arctic Ocean mid next week. It is this very difference between high altitude temperatures and lower altitude temperatures that drives the Jet Stream. In the absence of much difference, changes to the Jet Stream are making it easier for cold air to move out of the Arctic and for warm air from lower latitudes to move in. The Polar Vortex is similarly affected, as illustrated by the image below.

At lower altitude, the highest wind speed detected on the image below was 94 km/h (green marker). Strong winds brought a lot of rain from the Atlantic Ocean to the U.K., as has been the case for some time.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The result is more extreme weather, which can translate into more intense storms, heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and further havoc. Importantly, storms across the Arctic Ocean and higher wind speeds along the edges of Greenland can break up the ice and speed up its exit from the Arctic Ocean. The Naval Research Laboratory animation below shows strong winds pushing the sea ice around and speeding up its exit along the edges of Greenland. 

Despite the cold weather that has hit large parts of North America over the past few months, the water off the coast of North America has not cooled, as illustrated by the image below. The blue and lilac colored areas are in part the result of exit currents carrying cold water out of the Arctic Ocean more rapidly, while the Gulf Stream continues to carry warmer water (brown and red colored areas) into the Arctic Ocean. 

[ Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) - click on image to enlarge ]

The Arctic is especially vulnerable to warming, due to a number of circumstances, including:
- Gulf Stream carrying warmer water into the Arctic Ocean;
- Arctic snow and ice cover is at the verge of collapse;
- Methane is present in large quantities under the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
These circumstances and the combined impact of feedbacks such as extreme weather make that, on top of global warming, the Arctic is hit by a second, addtional kind of warming, i.e. accelerating warming in the Arctic.

The joint impact of feedbacks is becoming stronger, as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic and with continued demise of the snow and ice cover. So, let's start with feedback #1, i.e. that, as snow and ice cover decline further, an ever larger part of the sunlight will be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, rather than to (a) be reflected back into space or (b) be consumed in the process of transforming ice into water. This first feedback will then be amplified by further feedbacks such as storms that can more easily develop in open water. And, as the weather becomes more extreme, stronger storms and heatwaves can be expected to hit the Arctic Ocean, causing further demise of the sea ice, resulting in more heat being absorbed by the Arctic Ocean. Thus, feedbacks can amplify each other, causing warming in the Arctic to accelerate even further. 

One of the most dangerous feedbacks is that, as the Arctic Ocean warms up further and as the Gulf Stream carries ever warmer water into the Arctic Ocean, methane can erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean in large quantities. Methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have become especially noticable over the past half year. The big danger is that this will develop into a third kind of warming, runaway global warming. 

Large amounts of methane are still entering the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which contains very little hydroxyl to start with, so large abrupt releases will deplete the little hydroxyl that is there much faster than elsewhere. Furthermore, the methane will initially be highly concentrated in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, and where the methane does move out of the Arctic, it could warm up the water along the track of the Gulf Stream, causing even warmer water to enter the Arctic Ocean. For years after its release, the methane will act as a powerful greenhouse gas. Unlike the albedo changes, which have the highest impact at the June Solstice when the amount of solar radiation received by the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth, methane prevents heat from radiating out into space throughout the year. 

The interactive diagram below gives an overview of these three kinds of warming and the numerous feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic, from the earlier post The Biggest Story of 2013.

Hover over each kind of warming and feedback to view more details, click to go to page with further background 

In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan blog.




Related

- The Biggest Story of 2013
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-biggest-story-of-2013.html

- Climate Plan
http://climateplan.blogspot.com

- Changes to Polar Vortex affect mile-deep ocean circulation patterns
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/changes-to-polar-vortex-affect-mile-deep-ocean-circulation-patterns.html

- Diagram of Doom
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html

- Polar Jet Stream appears hugely deformed
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/12/polar-jet-stream-appears-hugely-deformed.html

- Methane Levels going through the Roof
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/methane-levels-going-through-the-roof.html

- Ocean heat: Four Hiroshima bombs a second: how we imagine climate change
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/four-hiroshima-bombs-second-how-we-imagine-climate-change.html

- (Three kinds of) Warming in the Arctic
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/warming-in-arctic.html

- Methane hydrates
http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

Feedbacks

1. Snow and ice decline causing more sunlight to be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/albedo-change-in-arctic.html
2. Methane releases warming up Arctic air
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/methane-levels-going-through-the-roof.html
3. As sea ice decline weakens vertical currents, seabed warms
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/arctic-sea-ice-loss-is-effectively-doubling-mankinds-contribution-to-global-warming.html
4. Storms cause vertical mixing of water
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/arctic-waters-are-heating-up.html
5. Accelerated Arctic warming causes storms that push cold air of the Arctic
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html
6. Extreme weather causing storms that push away sea ice
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/04/supplementary-evidence-by-prof-peter.html
7. Extreme weather causing storms that create higher waves, breaking up the sea ice
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/huge-cyclone-batters-arctic-sea-ice.html
8. Storms creating more wavy waters that absorb more sunlight
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html
9. Extreme weather causing fires, etc.
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/how-extreme-will-it-get.html
10. Weaker polar vortex and jet stream let cold air move out of Arctic
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/opening-further-doorways-to-doom.html
11. Extreme weather causing warmer waters
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-biggest-story-of-2013.html
12. Snow and ice decline cause seismic activity that destabilizes hydrates
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/methane-release-caused-by-earthquakes.html
13. Methane releases prevent sea ice from forming
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/methane-emerges-from-warmer-areas.html

Post by Sam Carana.